Sunday Squeeze · NFL Week 5

Matchup Sheet

Every Week 5 game: kickoffs, spreads and totals, weather, who’s out, touchdown chances, player ranks and touchdown droughts, and the numbers for every position. Our bets go up Thursday night; first-TD picks later in the week.

Games already played stay on the page as they looked before kickoff, with the final score and our bets graded. Pick a game in the bar at the top to jump straight to it; the bar stays pinned as you scroll. The filter under “Find a game” shows only what’s still to play or the games we bet.

Updated Sun Oct 11, 7:43 AM CT · game lines Sun 7:30 AM · player lines Sun 7:00 AM · TD odds Sun 7:00 AM · weather Sun 7:30 AM · injuries Sun 7:30 AM CT · bet results 5:15 AM

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How our bets are doing

Every bet on our card, graded from the scores. This section updates after each game ends; last updated Friday 5:15 AM CT, with scores and stats from ESPN. Results use the odds on our card, or −110 where none was written down. A unit (u) is a normal-size bet.

Record so far

2-0

won-lost, 2 bets settled

Units won or lost

+1.52u

on 1.75u bet so far

Still to play

bets, 14.05u

Sides 1-0, +0.84u · 10 still to play
Unders 1-0, +0.68u · 6 still to play
Player props 0-0, 0.00u · 38 still to play

Still to play

Eagles at JaguarsSun 8:30 AM CT · Game notes

Not started
Eagles +7.5 0.5u at −112
Not started
Jalen Hurts under 6.5 carries 0.25u at −128
Not started
Jakobi Meyers to score a TD 0.1u at +275

Bears at PackersSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Packers to win 0.5u at +100
Not started
Under 45.5 points 0.25u at −102
Not started
Rome Odunze under 3.5 catches 0.25u at −162
Not started
Kaleb Johnson under 36.5 rushing yards 0.25u at −116
Not started
Luther Burden III to score a TD 0.1u at +230

Bengals at DolphinsSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Chase Brown under 16.5 carries 0.25u at −106
Not started
Malik Willis under 33.5 rushing yards 0.25u at −116
Not started
Malik Washington to score a TD 0.1u at +320

Browns at JetsSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Jets -2.5 0.5u at −110
Not started
Under 39.5 points 0.25u at −108
Not started
KC Concepcion under 4.5 catches 0.25u at −139
Not started
Quinshon Judkins under 15.5 carries 0.25u at −101
Not started
Isaiah Williams to score a TD 0.1u at +400

Texans at TitansSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Titans +7.5 0.5u at −115
Not started
Xavier Hutchinson over 1.5 catches 0.25u at +130
Not started
Carnell Tate under 4.5 catches 0.25u at −145
Not started
Kayshon Boutte to score a TD 0.1u at +475

Colts at SteelersSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Colts to win 0.25u at +124
Not started
Under 44.5 points 0.5u at −118
Not started
Jonathan Taylor under 2.5 catches 0.25u at −109
Not started
Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 catches 0.25u at −143
Not started
Germie Bernard to score a TD 0.1u at +400

Raiders at PatriotsSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Tre Tucker over 3.5 catches 0.25u at +111
Not started
Drake Maye under 31.5 rushing yards 0.25u at −113
Not started
Romeo Doubs to score a TD 0.1u at +170

Vikings at SaintsSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Saints +2.5 0.25u at −112
Not started
Juwan Johnson under 4.5 catches 0.25u at −127

Giants at CommandersSun 12:00 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Under 42.5 points 0.25u at −115
Not started
Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 55.5 rushing yards 0.25u at −109
Not started
Malachi Fields under 2.5 catches 0.25u at −161
Not started
Najee Harris to score a TD 0.1u at +425

Broncos at ChargersSun 3:05 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Chargers +3.5 0.5u at −118
Not started
Chargers to win 0.25u at +150
Not started
Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 catches 0.25u at −120
Not started
Troy Franklin under 1.5 catches 0.25u at −110
Not started
Kimani Vidal to score a TD 0.1u at +550

Lions at CardinalsSun 3:25 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Marvin Harrison Jr. under 2.5 catches 0.25u at +110
Not started
Kendrick Bourne under 2.5 catches 0.25u at −136
Not started
Jameson Williams to score a TD 0.1u at +180

49ers at SeahawksSun 3:25 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Seahawks -3 0.5u at −110
Not started
Christian McCaffrey under 4.5 catches 0.25u at +101
Not started
Deebo Samuel under 3.5 catches 0.25u at −121
Not started
Cooper Kupp to score a TD 0.1u at +340

Ravens at FalconsSun 7:20 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Under 43.5 points 0.25u at −105
Not started
Zay Flowers under 5.5 catches 0.25u at −126
Not started
Derrick Henry under 85.5 rushing yards 0.25u at −114
Not started
Drake London to score a TD 0.1u at +125

Bills at RamsMon 7:15 PM CT · Game notes

Not started
Rams -3 0.5u at −120
Not started
Under 54.5 points 0.75u at −102
Not started
Dalton Kincaid under 52.5 receiving yards 0.25u at −114
Not started
Khalil Shakir to score a TD 0.1u at +245

Finished

Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16Final · Game notes

Won
Buccaneers +9.5 1u at −119
Buccaneers won by 8
+0.84u
Won
Under 48.5 points 0.75u at −110
Final total 40, 8.5 points under
+0.68u

Covers Clayton’s card below.

Projected score: Our projected final score. The win % is each team’s chance to win.
TD chance: How likely a player is to score at least one touchdown. TD odds are the best price at the last update, shown once two or more sportsbooks have posted one.
Worth it at: The worst odds that still pay enough. Take those odds or better; if the book is offering less, skip it.
Ranks: Rankings are based on various sources, for this week and for the rest of the season. Each game lists its players by position (QB, RB, WR, TE, defense, kicker), best rank this week first; players without a rank come last. This week vs season: a plus means he ranks higher this week; green or red marks a big gap.
Last TD: When he last scored a touchdown, and how many of his games ago.
Matchup: Good: the defense gives up touchdowns to his position and his team scores there a lot. Tough: the opposite.
Injury score: Starters likely to miss the game, weighted by position (starting QB = 4) and by each one’s chance of sitting. Both teams side by side for every game. Green under 1, amber 1-3, red 3 or more.
Lines: The sportsbooks’ over/under numbers. Bet marks our bets, lean marks smaller leans. Skip any of them if the line moves.

Find a game

Thursday night

TB @ DALFinal

Sunday morning

PHI @ JAX

Sunday noon

CHI @ GB CIN @ MIA CLE @ NYJ HOU @ TEN IND @ PIT LV @ NE MIN @ NO NYG @ WAS

Sunday afternoon

DEN @ LAC DET @ ARI SF @ SEA

Sunday night

BAL @ ATL

Monday night

BUF @ LA

Our bets this week

Clayton’s card, posted Thursday night, Oct 8. Prices as of Thursday night (props and touchdowns from Thursday afternoon). The two Thursday-night bets were picked before kickoff and added after the game. The Sunday games get a last check Sunday morning; any change shows here. 1 unit (u) is a normal bet; 0.25u is a quarter of one.

Sides

Buccaneers +9.5 1u TB @ DAL
Picked before Thursday's kickoff; added to the card after the game.
Eagles +7.5 0.5u PHI @ JAX
More than a touchdown at a neutral site in London.
Titans +7.5 0.5u HOU @ TEN
The home team is getting more than a touchdown in a division game.
Chargers +3.5 0.5u DEN @ LAC
A home underdog getting more than a field goal.
Seahawks -3 0.5u SF @ SEA
Home favorite by a field goal in a division game.
Jets -2.5 0.5u CLE @ NYJ
Home favorite by less than a field goal.
Saints +2.5 0.25u MIN @ NO
A home underdog getting points.
Rams -3 0.5u BUF @ LA
Monday night at home, laying a field goal.
Packers to win 0.5u CHI @ GB
Chicago starts its backup quarterback with Caleb Williams out, and Green Bay is at home.
Chargers to win 0.25u DEN @ LAC
A small piece on the home underdog winning outright, beside the points.
Colts to win 0.25u IND @ PIT
Better than even odds in a game lined under a field goal.

Unders

Under 48.5 points 0.75u TB @ DAL
Picked before Thursday's kickoff; added to the card after the game.
Under 54.5 points 0.75u BUF @ LA
Tied for the highest total of the week, indoors at SoFi.
Under 44.5 points 0.5u IND @ PIT
Heavy rain is forecast at kickoff in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have scored about 19 points a game lately.
Under 42.5 points 0.25u NYG @ WAS
The Giants are down to their third quarterback (Jaxson Dart on injured reserve, Marcus Mariota very unlikely), with rain in the forecast.
Under 45.5 points 0.25u CHI @ GB
Chicago starts its backup quarterback, and Green Bay has scored about 18 points a game lately.
Under 39.5 points 0.25u CLE @ NYJ
Both offenses have scored about 19 to 20 points a game lately, with rain possible at kickoff.
Under 43.5 points 0.25u BAL @ ATL
Lamar Jackson is listed as very unlikely to play.

Player props

Jalen Hurts under 6.5 carries 0.25u PHI @ JAX
5 or fewer carries in each of his last three games.
Rome Odunze under 3.5 catches 0.25u CHI @ GB
3 or fewer catches in 3 of 4 games, now with Chicago's backup quarterback.
Kaleb Johnson under 36.5 rushing yards 0.25u CHI @ GB
Under 36.5 rushing yards in 3 of his 4 games.
Chase Brown under 16.5 carries 0.25u CIN @ MIA
13 and 9 carries the last two weeks.
Malik Willis under 33.5 rushing yards 0.25u CIN @ MIA
Under this number in 2 of 4 games, with 11 rushing yards last week.
Tre Tucker over 3.5 catches 0.25u LV @ NE
4 or more catches in 3 of his 4 games.
Drake Maye under 31.5 rushing yards 0.25u LV @ NE
Under 20 rushing yards in 2 of his 4 games.
Juwan Johnson under 4.5 catches 0.25u MIN @ NO
4 or fewer catches in 2 of 4 games.
KC Concepcion under 4.5 catches 0.25u CLE @ NYJ
4 or fewer catches in 2 of 4 games; Cleveland is the road underdog.
Quinshon Judkins under 15.5 carries 0.25u CLE @ NYJ
Fewer than 13 carries in 2 of his 4 games.
Jonathan Taylor under 2.5 catches 0.25u IND @ PIT
2 catches or fewer in each of his last two games.
Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 catches 0.25u IND @ PIT
3 catches or fewer in each of his last two games, with heavy rain forecast.
Xavier Hutchinson over 1.5 catches 0.25u HOU @ TEN
3 catches in every game this season.
Carnell Tate under 4.5 catches 0.25u HOU @ TEN
4 or fewer catches in 2 of his 4 games.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 55.5 rushing yards 0.25u NYG @ WAS
His rushing yards have dropped every week: 63, 43, 36, 15.
Malachi Fields under 2.5 catches 0.25u NYG @ WAS
Exactly 2 catches in every game this season.
Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 catches 0.25u DEN @ LAC
4 or fewer catches in 2 of his 4 games.
Troy Franklin under 1.5 catches 0.25u DEN @ LAC
One catch or fewer in every game he has played this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr. under 2.5 catches 0.25u DET @ ARI
Fewer than 3 catches in 3 of his 4 games.
Kendrick Bourne under 2.5 catches 0.25u DET @ ARI
2 catches in each of his last two games.
Christian McCaffrey under 4.5 catches 0.25u SF @ SEA
4 or fewer catches in each of his last three games.
Deebo Samuel under 3.5 catches 0.25u SF @ SEA
3 or fewer catches in 2 of his 4 games.
Zay Flowers under 5.5 catches 0.25u BAL @ ATL
Baltimore is likely without Lamar Jackson.
Derrick Henry under 85.5 rushing yards 0.25u BAL @ ATL
Under this number in 2 of his 4 games.
Dalton Kincaid under 52.5 receiving yards 0.25u BUF @ LA
38 and 7 receiving yards the last two weeks.
Jakobi Meyers to score a TD 0.1u PHI @ JAX
Two touchdowns this season and three end-zone targets.
Luther Burden III to score a TD 0.1u CHI @ GB
One of Chicago's main red-zone targets.
Malik Washington to score a TD 0.1u CIN @ MIA
Has stepped up with Caleb Douglas sidelined.
Romeo Doubs to score a TD 0.1u LV @ NE
Two touchdowns last week.
Isaiah Williams to score a TD 0.1u CLE @ NYJ
Scored last week.
Germie Bernard to score a TD 0.1u IND @ PIT
A long price on a receiver whose role is growing.
Kayshon Boutte to score a TD 0.1u HOU @ TEN
A long price on a receiver in the rotation.
Najee Harris to score a TD 0.1u NYG @ WAS
Gets carries near the goal line.
Kimani Vidal to score a TD 0.1u DEN @ LAC
Scored last week.
Jameson Williams to score a TD 0.1u DET @ ARI
A big-play threat in Sunday's highest-total game.
Cooper Kupp to score a TD 0.1u SF @ SEA
Scored in Week 3.
Drake London to score a TD 0.1u BAL @ ATL
Atlanta's top target.
Khalil Shakir to score a TD 0.1u BUF @ LA
One of Buffalo's main red-zone targets.

Weather to watch

Forecasts for the 9 outdoor games, kickoff through the final whistle (updated Sun 7:30 AM CT; every 30 minutes on game day). The other 6 games are indoors or under a retractable roof. Forecasts four days out can change a lot.

Eagles at Jaguars Rain possible: up to 47%
Bears at Packers Windy: SSW 13 mph, gusts to 23
Bengals at Dolphins Windy: SSE 11 mph, gusts to 15Hot: 89°F
Browns at Jets Windy: ESE 14 mph, gusts to 28Rain likely: up to 95%
Colts at Steelers Windy: SE 19 mph, gusts to 38Rain likely: up to 76%
Giants at Commanders Windy: ESE 13 mph, gusts to 31Rain likely: up to 77%

Injury scores by matchup

Starters only: the players who start when healthy (how much they play when available, last season included for anyone hurt early). Each one counts by position (a starting quarterback 4; tackles, edge rushers and corners 1.25; most other starters 1; guards, tight ends and running backs 0.75) times his chance of sitting out: 100% for out or injured reserve, 99% for doubtful, and otherwise a chance from this week's practice reports (no practice all week is about 80-95%). 0 means fully healthy. Names listed are 50%+ to sit.

Eagles at JaguarsSun 8:30 AM CT

Injury scores, Eagles at Jaguars
	Eagles	Jaguars
Offense	3.5	0.75
Defense	1	1

Likely to sit

Eagles: Marcus Epps (SS), Drew Kendall (C), DeVonta Smith (WR), Saquon Barkley (RB), Landon Dickerson (G)
Jaguars: Eric Murray (SS), Patrick Mekari (G)

Bears at PackersSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Bears at Packers
	Bears	Packers
Offense	3.44	3.48
Defense	1.27	3

Likely to sit

Bears: Kyler Gordon (CB), Braxton Jones (T), Caleb Williams (QB, 55%)
Packers: Zach Bako-Bewele (T), Johnathan Baldwin (FS), Edgerrin Cooper (ILB), Micah Parsons (OLB), Jacob Monk (C, 99%), Aaron Banks (G, 99%)

Bengals at DolphinsSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Bengals at Dolphins
	Bengals	Dolphins
Offense	1.25	1.75
Defense	1.56	0

Likely to sit

Bengals: Jalen Davis (CB), Andrei Iosivas (WR)
Dolphins: Caleb Douglas (WR), De'Von Achane (RB)

Browns at JetsSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Browns at Jets
	Browns	Jets
Offense	0.75	2.5
Defense	2.25	1.16

Likely to sit

Browns: Alex Wright (DE), Mason Graham (DT), Teven Jenkins (G)
Jets: Adonai Mitchell (WR), David Onyemata (DT), Breece Hall (RB), Dylan Parham (G)

Texans at TitansSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Texans at Titans
	Texans	Titans
Offense	1.78	0.93
Defense	2.46	2

Likely to sit

Texans: Jayden Higgins (WR), E.J. Speed (OLB), Henry To'oTo'o (OLB)
Titans: Jaylen Harrell (OLB), Amani Hooker (FS), Fernando Carmona (G)

Colts at SteelersSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Colts at Steelers
	Colts	Steelers
Offense	0.11	1
Defense	3.73	2.49

Likely to sit

Colts: Arden Key (DE), Cameron Mitchell (CB), Jaylon Carlies (ILB)
Steelers: Jamel Dean (CB), DeShon Elliott (SS), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Raiders at PatriotsSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Raiders at Patriots
	Raiders	Patriots
Offense	1.3	1.46
Defense	0	4.53

Likely to sit

Raiders: Jalen Nailor (WR)
Patriots: Carlton Davis (CB), Christian Gonzalez (CB), Mack Hollins (WR), Harold Landry (OLB)

Vikings at SaintsSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Vikings at Saints
	Vikings	Saints
Offense	3.64	3.77
Defense	0	2.23

Likely to sit

Vikings: Christian Darrisaw (T), Donovan Jackson (G), Josh Oliver (TE)
Saints: Kelvin Banks (T), Bryan Bresee (DT), Kaden Elliss (ILB), Mason Tipton (WR), Travis Etienne (RB), Dillon Radunz (G)

Giants at CommandersSun Noon CT

Injury scores, Giants at Commanders
	Giants	Commanders
Offense	4	2.6
Defense	5.5	2.89

Likely to sit

Giants: Jaxson Dart (QB), Paulson Adebo (CB), Chauncey Golston (DE), Brian Burns (OLB), Jason Pinnock (FS), Roy Robertson-Harris (DT)
Commanders: Charles Omenihu (DE), Laremy Tunsil (T), Nick Cross (SS), Stefon Diggs (WR)

Broncos at ChargersSun 3:05 PM CT

Injury scores, Broncos at Chargers
	Broncos	Chargers
Offense	1	7.02
Defense	1.3	3.27

Likely to sit

Broncos: Riley Moss (CB), Pat Bryant (WR)
Chargers: Joe Alt (T), Donte Jackson (CB), Trey Pipkins (T), Derwin James (SS), Quentin Johnston (WR), Denzel Perryman (ILB), Kayode Awosika (G), Trevor Penning (G), Branson Taylor (G), Rashawn Slater (T, 83%)

Lions at CardinalsSun 3:25 PM CT

Injury scores, Lions at Cardinals
	Lions	Cardinals
Offense	0.75	4.51
Defense	5.51	2.55

Likely to sit

Lions: Rock Ya-Sin (CB), Brian Branch (SS), Thomas Harper (FS), Kerby Joseph (FS), Avonte Maddox (FS), Ben Bartch (G)
Cardinals: Paris Johnson (T), Will Johnson (CB), Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR), Andrew Wingard (FS), Isaiah Adams (G), Trey Benson (RB), James Conner (RB)

49ers at SeahawksSun 3:25 PM CT

Injury scores, 49ers at Seahawks
	49ers	Seahawks
Offense	2.04	1.52
Defense	4.59	0.02

Likely to sit

49ers: Nick Bosa (DE), Sam Okuayinonu (DE), Ricky Pearsall (WR), Demarcus Robinson (WR), Marques Sigle (SS)
Seahawks: Anthony Bradford (G), Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Ravens at FalconsSun 7:20 PM CT

Injury scores, Ravens at Falcons
	Ravens	Falcons
Offense	5.87	0.19
Defense	1.46	3.92

Likely to sit

Ravens: Lamar Jackson (QB), Jovaughn Gwyn (C), Trey Hendrickson (OLB), Durham Smythe (TE)
Falcons: AJ Terrell (CB), James Pearce (OLB), Jalon Walker (OLB)

Bills at RamsMon 7:15 PM CT

Injury scores, Bills at Rams
	Bills	Rams
Offense	1.28	0.85
Defense	0.77	2.63

Likely to sit

Bills: Tyrell Shavers (WR)
Rams: Myles Garrett (OLB), Terrance Ferguson (TE), Josaiah Stewart (OLB, 85%)

First-TD picks

First-TD picks go up later in the week, once the odds settle.

Thursday night Thu, Oct 8

Thu 7:15 PM CT · Thursday Night Football

Buccaneers at Cowboys

Cowboys by 8.5-9 · over/under 48.5-49

Expected points: Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 28.8 · Retractable roof

FinalBuccaneers 24, Cowboys 16

Projected before kickoff

Buccaneers 20, Cowboys 28

Cowboys win 74% of the time

Weather

Retractable roof The roof closes for bad weather, so weather isn't a factor.

Our bets in this game, graded

Won Buccaneers +9.5 1u at −119 +0.84uBuccaneers won by 8
Won Under 48.5 points 0.75u at −110 +0.68uFinal total 40, 8.5 points under

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Buccaneers at Cowboys
	Buccaneers	Cowboys
Offense	0	0
Defense	0	1

Buccaneers

No starters on the injury report.

Game-day statuses aren’t out yet.

Cowboys

Defense

Jalen Thompson S IR reserve list

Game-day statuses aren’t out yet.

Most likely to score a TD

CeeDee Lamb DAL WR57%
Javonte Williams DAL RB55%
George Pickens DAL WR31%
Jake Ferguson DAL TE30%
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR29%

Our prop leans

Javonte Williams under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +104 or better · best price Thu 5:28 PM CT +110 (ESPN BET)
CeeDee Lamb under 6.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -116 or better · best price Thu 5:28 PM CT -110 (Hard Rock)
George Pickens under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +104 or better · best price Thu 5:28 PM CT +110 (ESPN BET)
Emeka Egbuka under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -143 or better · best price Thu 5:28 PM CT -135 (ESPN BET)
Bucky Irving under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -163 or better · best price Thu 5:28 PM CT -158 (FanDuel)

Players

Quarterbacks 3

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Dak Prescott DAL	270.5 pass yds · 9.5 rush yds	QB4	264.6	1.88	0.47	1	2025 Wk 12 · 10 games ago	17
Jalon Daniels TB	184.5 pass yds · 44.5 rush yds	QB26	74.0	0.5	1.5	0	None yet	2
Baker Mayfield TB Out	no line yet	—	212.8	1.25	0.75	2	Wk 1 · 2 games ago	16

Running backs 4

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Javonte Williams DAL	55%	-190	Wk 4 (3 TDs) · last game	RB9	RB9	—	6 / 16	—	66.5 rush yds · 16.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean under
Bucky Irving TB	29%	+200	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	RB20	RB19	—	1 / 5	—	52.5 rush yds · 13.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean under
Kenny Gainwell TB	24%	+475	Wk 4 · last game	RB44	RB49	—	1 / 6	—	12.5 rush yds · 1.5 catches
Tyler Goodson DAL	16%	+650	None yet	RB64	RB71	—	0 / 0	—	14.5 rush yds

Receivers 9

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
CeeDee Lamb DAL	57%	-111	Wk 4 · last game	WR4	WR6	—	4 / 7	—	6.5 catches lean under · 84.5 rec yds
George Pickens DAL	31%	+125	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	WR14	WR10	—	0 / 5	—	4.5 catches lean under · 63.5 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka TB	25%	+290	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	WR31	WR28	—	1 / 3	—	3.5 catches lean under · 36.5 rec yds
Chris Godwin Jr. TB	17%	—	2025 Wk 17 · 5 games ago	WR48	WR42	—	0 / 2	—	3.5 catches · 31.5 rec yds
Ryan Flournoy DAL	29%	+310	2025 Wk 16 · 5 games ago	WR53	WR70	—	0 / 4	—	3.5 catches · 31.5 rec yds
Ted Hurst III TB	18%	+550	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR65	WR69	—	1 / 1	—	1.5 catches · 16.5 rec yds
Tez Johnson TB	10%	+750	2025 Wk 12 · 9 games ago	WR98	WR114	—	0 / 5	—	1.5 catches · 12.5 rec yds
Jonathan Mingo DAL Questionable	—	—	None yet	WR130	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Jalen McMillan TB Out	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Tight ends 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Jake Ferguson DAL	30%	+225	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE19	TE18	—	3 / 10	Good	3.5 catches · 27.5 rec yds
Cade Otton TB	14%	+500	2025 Wk 18 · 4 games ago	TE25	TE26	—	0 / 1	—	3.5 catches · 29.5 rec yds
Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	—	—	2025 Wk 12 · 7 games ago	TE53	—	—	0 / 1	Good	0.5 catches · 4.5 rec yds
Luke Schoonmaker DAL	—	—	None yet	TE62	—	—	0 / 0	Good	no line yet
Payne Durham TB	—	—	None yet	TE89	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Buccaneers	Cowboys	—	1.9	0.9	0.6	2	24.1	28.0
Cowboys	Buccaneers	—	2.0	0.3	0.4	1	28.9	19.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Brandon Aubrey DAL	K1	2.06	35 of 44	80%	63	9	9.0	28.0
Chase McLaughlin TB	K20	1.88	32 of 35	91%	59	10	7.5	19.5

Sunday morning Sun, Oct 11

Sun 8:30 AM CT · London

Eagles at Jaguars

Jaguars by 8 · over/under 41.5

Expected points: Eagles 16.8, Jaguars 24.8 · Outdoors

Projected score

Eagles 16, Jaguars 24

Jaguars win 73% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

Rain possible: up to 47% 74°F at kickoff · drizzle · rain 47% at kickoff · wind WSW 8 mph, gusts to 19. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Eagles +7.5 0.5u
Jalen Hurts under 6.5 carries 0.25u
Jakobi Meyers to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Eagles at Jaguars
	Eagles	Jaguars
Offense	3.5	0.75
Defense	1	1

Eagles

Offense

Drew Kendall C Out knee first game out
DeVonta Smith WR Out hamstring
Saquon Barkley RB Out hamstring first game out
Landon Dickerson G IR reserve list

Defense

Marcus Epps SS Out groin

Jaguars

Offense

Patrick Mekari G IR reserve list

Defense

Eric Murray SS Out concussion first game out

Most likely to score a TD

Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB52%
Parker Washington JAX WR31%
Jalen Hurts PHI QB30%
Jakobi Meyers JAX WR26%
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB23%

Our prop leans

Brenton Strange under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -143 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -135 (ESPN BET)

Players

Quarterbacks 4

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Trevor Lawrence JAX	225.5 pass yds · 13.5 rush yds	QB8	234.8	2.0	0.65	7	2025 Wk 17 (2 TDs) · 6 games ago	17
Jalen Hurts PHI	190.5 pass yds · 27.5 rush yds	QB17	201.0	1.62	0.56	5	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	16
Andy Dalton PHI	no line yet	QB51	78.3	0.0	0.67	0	None yet	3
Nick Mullens JAX	no line yet	—	3.8	0.0	0.0	0	None yet	5

Running backs 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Bhayshul Tuten JAX	52%	+100	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	RB12	RB13	−2	2 / 7	—	65.5 rush yds · 14.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Will Shipley PHI	20%	+310	None yet	RB39	RB40	+2	0 / 0	Tough	33.5 rush yds · 10.5 carries · 2.5 catches
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	3%	+350	Wk 4 · last game	RB40	RB39	+5	2 / 8	—	25.5 rush yds · 6.5 carries
LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX	6%	+1150	None yet	RB72	RB75	+2	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Ameer Abdullah JAX	5%	+1500	2025 Wk 5 · 14 games ago	RB75	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Saquon Barkley PHI Out	—	—	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	RB78	—	—	0 / 6	Tough	no line yet
Tank Bigsby PHI Out	—	—	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	—	—	—	1 / 3	Tough	no line yet

Receivers 8

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Parker Washington JAX	31%	+150	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR15	WR11	−4	2 / 8	—	4.5 catches · 60.5 rec yds
Dontayvion Wicks PHI	9%	+400	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	WR38	WR57	+17	1 / 3	—	3.5 catches · 44.5 rec yds
Jakobi Meyers JAX	26%	+300	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR39	WR40	−4	2 / 5	—	3.5 catches · 41.5 rec yds
Makai Lemon PHI	13%	+550	None yet	WR44	WR35	−11	0 / 0	—	3.5 catches · 32.5 rec yds
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX	22%	—	Wk 4 · last game	WR48	WR44	−4	1 / 4	—	2.5 catches · 24.5 rec yds
Darius Cooper PHI	13%	+650	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	WR62	WR69	+5	3 / 3	—	2.5 catches · 21.5 rec yds
Josh Cameron JAX	16%	+800	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR75	—	—	2 / 2	—	1.5 catches · 10.5 rec yds
DeVonta Smith PHI Out	—	—	Wk 2 · 1 game ago	WR150	—	—	1 / 4	—	no line yet

Tight ends 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Brenton Strange JAX	22%	+310	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	TE17	TE14	−5	1 / 4	Tough	3.5 catches lean under · 33.5 rec yds
Dallas Goedert PHI	21%	+340	Wk 1 (2 TDs) · 1 game ago	TE26	TE13	—	2 / 15	Good	4.5 catches · 40.5 rec yds
Zach Ertz PHI	6%	+1100	2025 Wk 7 · 8 games ago	TE38	TE44	+7	0 / 4	Good	no line yet
Nate Boerkircher JAX	7%	+1000	None yet	TE59	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet
Johnny Mundt PHI	3%	+1750	None yet	TE65	—	—	0 / 0	Good	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Jaguars	Eagles	DST5	2.1	1.1	0.5	1	18.6	17.8
Eagles	Jaguars	DST22	2.4	0.8	0.4	1	19.5	24.8

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Cam Little JAX	K5	1.65	28 of 33	85%	68	9	7.9	24.8
Jake Elliott PHI	K28	1.24	21 of 28	75%	58	3	5.9	17.8

Sunday noon Sun, Oct 11

Sun Noon CT

Bears at Packers

Bears by 1.5 · over/under 46.5-47

Expected points: Bears 24.1, Packers 22.6 · Outdoors

Projected score

Bears 23, Packers 21

Bears win 54% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

Windy: SSW 13 mph, gusts to 23 73°F at kickoff · clear · little or no rain expected · wind SSW 13 mph, gusts to 23. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Packers to win 0.5u
Under 45.5 points 0.25u
Rome Odunze under 3.5 catches 0.25u
Kaleb Johnson under 36.5 rushing yards 0.25u
Luther Burden III to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Bears at Packers
	Bears	Packers
Offense	3.44	3.48
Defense	1.27	3

Bears

Offense

Braxton Jones T IR reserve list
Caleb Williams QB Questionable hamstring 55% chance he sits

Defense

Kyler Gordon CB IR calf

Packers

Offense

Zach Bako-Bewele T IR reserve list
Jacob Monk C Doubtful quadricep 99% chance he sits
Aaron Banks G Doubtful knee 99% chance he sits
Jager Burton C Questionable back 27% chance he sits

Defense

Johnathan Baldwin FS IR reserve list
Edgerrin Cooper ILB IR reserve list first game out
Micah Parsons OLB IR reserve list

Most likely to score a TD

D'Andre Swift CHI RB54%
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB40%
Christian Watson GB WR32%
Luther Burden III CHI WR31%
Kaleb Johnson GB RB29%

Our prop leans

Colston Loveland under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -159 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -150 (DraftKings)
Kalif Raymond under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -175 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -165 (BetMGM)
Rome Odunze under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -174 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -165 (BetMGM)
D'Andre Swift over 2.5 catches
Kyle Monangai is out, so Swift should get more of the work, catches included.
Worth it at -111 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -108 (BetRivers)

Players

Quarterbacks 4

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Jordan Love GB	234.5 pass yds · 6.5 rush yds	QB12	232.4	1.73	0.47	0	None yet	15
Tyson Bagent CHI	215.5 pass yds · 11.5 rush yds	QB19	114.0	0.0	0.33	0	None yet	3
Case Keenum CHI	no line yet	QB31	247.0	2.0	0.0	1	Wk 3 · last game	1
Caleb Williams CHI Questionable	no line yet	—	241.1	1.6	0.67	3	Wk 1 (2 TDs) · 1 game ago	15

Running backs 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
D'Andre Swift CHI	54%	-165	Wk 1 (3 TDs) · 3 games ago	RB8	RB11	+0	3 / 11	Good	84.5 rush yds · 19.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean over
Kyle Monangai CHI Out	—	—	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	RB23	—	—	3 / 7	Good	no line yet
MarShawn Lloyd GB	40%	+140	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	RB31	RB38	+7	1 / 1	Tough	27.5 rush yds · 7.5 carries · 2.5 catches
Kaleb Johnson GB	29%	+215	None yet	RB38	RB41	+1	0 / 0	Tough	32.5 rush yds bet under 36.5 · 9.5 carries
Chris Brooks GB Out	—	—	None yet	RB88	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet

Receivers 10

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Christian Watson GB	32%	+185	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR10	WR15	+5	4 / 11	Good	4.5 catches · 61.5 rec yds
Matthew Golden GB	23%	+230	Wk 4 · last game	WR19	WR17	−4	2 / 3	Good	4.5 catches · 56.5 rec yds
Luther Burden III CHI	31%	+225	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR22	WR24	+1	1 / 2	Good	4.5 catches · 46.5 rec yds
Rome Odunze CHI	29%	+240	2025 Wk 10 · 9 games ago	WR26	WR22	−6	0 / 5	Good	3.5 catches bet under 3.5 · 39.5 rec yds
Kalif Raymond CHI	16%	+450	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR46	WR60	+7	1 / 2	Good	3.5 catches lean under · 26.5 rec yds
Skyy Moore GB	12%	+550	None yet	WR84	—	—	0 / 0	Good	1.5 catches · 12.5 rec yds
Bo Melton GB	4%	+1750	2025 Wk 14 · 7 games ago	WR114	—	—	0 / 1	Good	no line yet
Jahdae Walker CHI	1%	+1300	Wk 1 · last game	WR131	—	—	1 / 3	Good	no line yet
J. Michael Sturdivant GB	4%	+2200	None yet	WR135	—	—	0 / 0	Good	no line yet
Jayden Reed GB Out	—	—	—	—	—	—	0 / 2	Good	no line yet

Tight ends 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Tucker Kraft GB	26%	+230	Wk 4 · last game	TE5	TE7	+2	1 / 7	Tough	4.5 catches · 49.5 rec yds
Colston Loveland CHI	26%	+240	2025 Wk 18 · 6 games ago	TE9	TE9	+0	0 / 6	—	4.5 catches lean under · 37.5 rec yds
Cole Kmet CHI	12%	+600	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	TE40	TE46	—	1 / 3	—	1.5 catches · 9.5 rec yds
Jonnu Smith GB	8%	+900	2025 Wk 15 · 7 games ago	TE43	TE39	—	0 / 2	Tough	1.5 catches · 7.5 rec yds
Sam Roush CHI	4%	+1400	None yet	TE56	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Mark Redman GB	—	—	None yet	TE73	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Bears	Packers	DST12	2.2	0.9	0.5	1	21.9	21.2
Packers	Bears	DST21	2.1	0.6	0.4	0	23.2	24.2

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Cairo Santos CHI	K12	1.76	30 of 35	86%	54	4	7.9	24.2
Trey Smack GB	K20	1.5	6 of 7	86%	59	2	6.2	21.2

Sun Noon CT

Bengals at Dolphins

Bengals by 7 · over/under 43.5

Expected points: Bengals 25.2, Dolphins 18.2 · Outdoors

Projected score

Bengals 24, Dolphins 17

Bengals win 70% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

Windy: SSE 11 mph, gusts to 15Hot: 89°F 89°F at kickoff · clear · little or no rain expected · wind SSE 11 mph, gusts to 15. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Chase Brown under 16.5 carries 0.25u
Malik Willis under 33.5 rushing yards 0.25u
Malik Washington to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Bengals at Dolphins
	Bengals	Dolphins
Offense	1.25	1.75
Defense	1.56	0

Bengals

Offense

Andrei Iosivas WR IR reserve list
Ja'Marr Chase WR Questionable concussion 16% chance he sits
Tee Higgins WR Questionable groin 9% chance he sits

Defense

Jalen Davis CB IR reserve list
Bryan Cook FS Questionable ankle 25% chance he sits

Dolphins

Offense

Caleb Douglas WR Out ankle
De'Von Achane RB IR reserve list

Most likely to score a TD

Chase Brown CIN RB60%
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB36%
Mike Gesicki CIN TE30%
Samaje Perine CIN RB27%
Malik Washington MIA WR23%

Our prop leans

Ja'Marr Chase under 6.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -116 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -110 (DraftKings)

Players

Quarterbacks 2

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Joe Burrow CIN	254.5 pass yds · 8.5 rush yds	QB5	279.1	2.2	0.8	1	Wk 4 · last game	10
Malik Willis MIA	189.5 pass yds · 32.5 rush yds bet under 33.5	QB29	141.8	0.5	0.25	3	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	8

Running backs 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Chase Brown CIN	60%	-132	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	RB9	RB7	+1	1 / 11	—	67.5 rush yds · 16.5 carries bet under 16.5 · 3.5 catches
Ollie Gordon II MIA	36%	+150	Wk 4 · last game	RB24	RB27	+2	2 / 6	—	42.5 rush yds · 11.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Jaylen Wright MIA Questionable	16%	+295	2025 Wk 16 · 5 games ago	RB44	RB43	+1	0 / 2	—	22.5 rush yds
Samaje Perine CIN	27%	+600	2025 Wk 17 · 5 games ago	RB46	RB52	+3	0 / 3	—	14.5 rush yds
DJ Herman MIA	—	—	None yet	RB89	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
De'Von Achane MIA Out	—	—	2025 Wk 16 · 4 games ago	—	—	—	0 / 10	—	no line yet

Receivers 12

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Malik Washington MIA	23%	+335	2025 Wk 18 · 4 games ago	WR30	WR42	+5	0 / 4	Tough	4.5 catches · 44.5 rec yds
Ja'Marr Chase CIN Questionable	17%	+112	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR33	WR2	—	3 / 10	—	6.5 catches lean under · 76.5 rec yds
Dohnte Meyers CIN	15%	+335	None yet	WR45	WR59	+18	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Chris Bell MIA	16%	+480	None yet	WR51	WR50	−5	0 / 0	Tough	2.5 catches · 33.5 rec yds
Tee Higgins CIN Questionable	7%	+130	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR61	WR16	—	1 / 11	—	4.5 catches · 59.5 rec yds
Mitchell Tinsley CIN	—	—	2025 Wk 12 · 4 games ago	WR79	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA	13%	+850	None yet	WR83	WR72	−5	0 / 0	Tough	1.5 catches · 18.5 rec yds
Colbie Young CIN Questionable	4%	+800	None yet	WR104	WR74	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Ryan Miller MIA	2%	+2000	Wk 2 · 1 game ago	WR120	—	—	1 / 2	Tough	no line yet
Caleb Douglas MIA Out	—	—	None yet	WR129	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet
Jalen Tolbert MIA	1%	+2500	2025 Wk 8 · 4 games ago	WR130	WR94	−2	0 / 1	Tough	no line yet
Andrei Iosivas CIN Out	—	—	2025 Wk 13 · 7 games ago	—	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet

Tight ends 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Mike Gesicki CIN	30%	+290	Wk 4 · last game	TE15	TE19	+6	3 / 5	—	2.5 catches · 30.5 rec yds
Greg Dulcich MIA	12%	+490	2025 Wk 17 · 4 games ago	TE28	TE23	−4	0 / 1	—	2.5 catches · 25.5 rec yds
Tanner Hudson CIN	7%	+1400	2025 Wk 13 · 7 games ago	TE46	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Drew Sample CIN	11%	+1500	2025 Wk 3 · 10 games ago	TE50	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Will Kacmarek MIA	4%	+1500	None yet	TE53	TE50	—	0 / 0	—	1.5 catches · 6.5 rec yds
Erick All CIN	9%	—	None yet	TE58	TE41	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Bengals	Dolphins	DST3	2.5	0.5	0.6	1	26.9	17.8
Dolphins	Bengals	DST28	2.1	0.7	0.5	0	23.9	24.8

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Evan McPherson CIN	K2	1.76	30 of 33	91%	63	10	7.9	24.8
Riley Patterson MIA	K30	1.71	29 of 33	88%	54	3	6.8	17.8

Sun Noon CT

Browns at Jets

Jets by 2.5 · over/under 39.5

Expected points: Browns 18.5, Jets 21 · Outdoors

Projected score

Browns 16, Jets 17

Jets win 57% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

Windy: ESE 14 mph, gusts to 28Rain likely: up to 95% 62°F at kickoff · light rain · rain 88% at kickoff, up to 95% later · wind ESE 14 mph, gusts to 28. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Jets -2.5 0.5u
Under 39.5 points 0.25u
KC Concepcion under 4.5 catches 0.25u
Quinshon Judkins under 15.5 carries 0.25u
Isaiah Williams to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Browns at Jets
	Browns	Jets
Offense	0.75	2.5
Defense	2.25	1.16

Browns

Offense

Teven Jenkins G Out back

Defense

Mason Graham DT Out knee first game out
Alex Wright DE IR reserve list

Jets

Offense

Adonai Mitchell WR Out finger
Breece Hall RB Out quadricep
Dylan Parham G Out knee

Defense

David Onyemata DT IR reserve list
Kingsley Enagbare OLB Questionable knee 16% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Braelon Allen NYJ RB41%
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR30%
Denzel Boston CLE WR26%
KC Concepcion Jr. CLE WR21%
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE TE21%

Our prop leans

KC Concepcion under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -143 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -135 (BetMGM)
Harold Fannin Jr. under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -154 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -150 (ESPN BET)

Players

Quarterbacks 3

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Deshaun Watson CLE	194.5 pass yds · 26.5 rush yds	QB20	213.8	1.5	0.5	0	None yet	4
Geno Smith NYJ	205.5 pass yds · 10.5 rush yds	QB26	198.6	1.2	0.67	0	None yet	15
Shedeur Sanders CLE	no line yet	QB33	155.6	0.78	1.11	1	2025 Wk 14 · 5 games ago	9

Running backs 4

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Braelon Allen NYJ	41%	+106	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	RB13	RB26	+8	1 / 2	—	71.5 rush yds · 17.5 carries · 2.5 catches
Quinshon Judkins CLE	9%	+170	Wk 4 · last game	RB16	RB14	−2	1 / 8	—	59.5 rush yds · 16.5 carries bet under 15.5 · 2.5 catches
Raheim Sanders CLE	11%	+800	2025 Wk 1 · 7 games ago	RB50	RB58	+6	0 / 1	—	1.5 catches
Breece Hall NYJ Out	—	—	Wk 1 · 2 games ago	RB86	—	—	1 / 6	—	no line yet

Receivers 9

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Garrett Wilson NYJ	30%	+155	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR13	WR13	−3	2 / 6	—	5.5 catches · 68.5 rec yds
Denzel Boston CLE	26%	+225	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	WR28	WR27	−4	2 / 2	—	3.5 catches · 47.5 rec yds
KC Concepcion CLE	21%	—	None yet	WR32	WR36	+3	0 / 0	—	4.5 catches bet under 4.5 · 39.5 rec yds
Isaiah Williams NYJ	13%	+450	Wk 4 · last game	WR64	—	—	1 / 1	—	2.5 catches · 22.5 rec yds
Jerry Jeudy CLE	9%	+750	2025 Wk 14 · 7 games ago	WR80	WR75	−2	0 / 2	—	1.5 catches · 14.5 rec yds
Sterling Shepard NYJ	3%	—	2025 Wk 5 · 10 games ago	WR103	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Isaiah Bond CLE	3%	+4000	None yet	WR121	WR97	+0	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Adonai Mitchell NYJ Out	—	—	2025 Wk 15 · 5 games ago	WR123	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ Out	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Tight ends 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	21%	+250	Wk 4 · last game	TE10	TE8	−2	3 / 10	—	4.5 catches lean under · 35.5 rec yds
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ	17%	+310	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE16	TE12	−5	2 / 2	Tough	3.5 catches · 29.5 rec yds
Mason Taylor NYJ	10%	+525	2025 Wk 8 · 6 games ago	TE39	TE37	—	0 / 1	Tough	1.5 catches · 13.5 rec yds
Jeremy Ruckert NYJ	6%	+1100	Wk 3 · last game	TE52	—	—	1 / 2	Tough	no line yet
Blake Whiteheart CLE	6%	+1300	Wk 2 · last game	TE60	—	—	1 / 1	—	no line yet
Jelani Woods NYJ	2%	+1600	None yet	TE75	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Browns	Jets	DST8	3.2	0.8	0.4	3	21.9	21.0
Jets	Browns	DST10	1.7	0.1	0.4	0	27.5	18.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Jason Sanders NYJ	K23	1.75	7 of 8	88%	52	2	6.5	21.0
Andre Szmyt CLE	K27	1.59	27 of 28	96%	56	6	6.4	18.5

Sun Noon CT

Texans at Titans

Texans by 7 · over/under 37.5

Expected points: Texans 22.2, Titans 15.2 · Outdoors

Projected score

Texans 21, Titans 14

Texans win 71% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

No weather worries 66°F at kickoff · overcast · little or no rain expected · wind NW 9 mph, gusts to 17. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Titans +7.5 0.5u
Xavier Hutchinson over 1.5 catches 0.25u
Carnell Tate under 4.5 catches 0.25u
Kayshon Boutte to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Texans at Titans
	Texans	Titans
Offense	1.78	0.93
Defense	2.46	2

Texans

Offense

Jayden Higgins WR IR reserve list
Aireontae Ersery T Questionable illness 42% chance he sits
Ed Ingram G Questionable illness 27% chance he sits

Defense

E.J. Speed OLB IR reserve list
Henry To'oTo'o OLB IR reserve list
M.J. Stewart FS IR knee 46% chance he sits

Titans

Offense

Fernando Carmona G IR reserve list
Carnell Tate WR Questionable back 18% chance he sits

Defense

Amani Hooker FS Out concussion first game out
Jaylen Harrell OLB IR reserve list

Most likely to score a TD

David Montgomery HOU RB46%
Nico Collins HOU WR43%
Tony Pollard TEN RB25%
Woody Marks HOU RB23%
Kayshon Boutte HOU WR17%

Our prop leans

Kayshon Boutte under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -165 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -155 (ESPN BET)
Carnell Tate under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -139 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -131 (DraftKings)
Dalton Schultz under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -162 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -156 (DraftKings)

Players

Quarterbacks 2

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
C.J. Stroud HOU	237.5 pass yds · 9.5 rush yds	QB13	238.5	1.21	0.64	1	2025 Wk 18 · 6 games ago	14
Cam Ward TEN	190.5 pass yds · 10.5 rush yds	QB30	193.0	0.94	0.41	4	Wk 2 (2 TDs) · 2 games ago	17

Running backs 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
David Montgomery HOU	46%	+130	Wk 1 (3 TDs) · 3 games ago	RB22	RB18	−4	3 / 8	—	43.5 rush yds · 13.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Tony Pollard TEN	25%	+240	Wk 4 · last game	RB26	RB29	+3	1 / 5	Tough	50.5 rush yds · 14.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Woody Marks HOU	23%	+210	Wk 4 · last game	RB35	RB32	−1	2 / 6	—	35.5 rush yds · 9.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Tyjae Spears TEN	14%	+700	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	RB49	RB47	+0	0 / 2	Tough	14.5 rush yds · 1.5 catches
Nicholas Singleton TEN	4%	+2250	None yet	RB69	RB53	−10	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet

Receivers 10

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Nico Collins HOU	43%	+140	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	WR5	WR7	+1	3 / 10	—	5.5 catches · 77.5 rec yds
Carnell Tate TEN Questionable	13%	+400	None yet	WR23	WR33	+7	0 / 0	—	4.5 catches bet under 4.5 · 46.5 rec yds
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN	14%	+500	Wk 4 · last game	WR49	WR45	−5	2 / 5	—	3.5 catches · 32.5 rec yds
Kayshon Boutte HOU	17%	+550	—	WR57	WR56	+0	0 / 6	—	2.5 catches lean under · 24.5 rec yds
Jaylin Noel HOU	11%	+600	2025 Wk 17 · 7 games ago	WR66	WR52	−18	0 / 2	—	1.5 catches · 19.5 rec yds
Xavier Hutchinson HOU	12%	+700	2025 Wk 8 · 15 games ago	WR67	WR71	+6	0 / 1	—	1.5 catches bet over 1.5 · 16.5 rec yds
Elic Ayomanor TEN	10%	+800	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	WR81	WR90	+8	1 / 3	—	1.5 catches · 15.5 rec yds
Calvin Ridley TEN	6%	+1400	None yet	WR92	WR81	−5	0 / 0	—	0.5 catches · 8.5 rec yds
Jared Wayne HOU	3%	+1750	None yet	WR112	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Lewis Bond HOU	—	—	None yet	WR163	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Tight ends 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Dalton Schultz HOU	15%	+300	2025 Wk 16 · 8 games ago	TE19	TE22	+2	0 / 3	—	4.5 catches lean under · 34.5 rec yds
Gunnar Helm TEN	9%	+600	2025 Wk 15 · 6 games ago	TE32	TE30	−3	0 / 2	—	2.5 catches · 16.5 rec yds
Foster Moreau HOU	8%	+950	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE41	—	—	1 / 1	—	no line yet
Daniel Bellinger TEN	4%	+1500	2025 Wk 18 · 4 games ago	TE47	TE48	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Cade Stover HOU	2%	+2250	None yet	TE67	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Brevin Jordan HOU	—	—	None yet	TE80	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Marlin Klein HOU	—	—	None yet	TE97	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Texans	Titans	DST1	3.3	0.9	0.7	2	20.6	15.5
Titans	Texans	DST26	2.7	0.3	0.3	1	25.9	23.0

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU	K6	2.8	42 of 45	93%	58	9	10.5	23.0
Joey Slye TEN	K29	1.38	22 of 26	85%	58	5	5.9	15.5

Sun Noon CT

Colts at Steelers

Steelers by 3 · over/under 43.5

Expected points: Colts 20.2, Steelers 23.2 · Outdoors

Projected score

Colts 17, Steelers 20

Steelers win 58% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

Windy: SE 19 mph, gusts to 38Rain likely: up to 76% 64°F at kickoff · light rain · rain 76% at kickoff · wind SE 19 mph, gusts to 38. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Colts to win 0.25u
Under 44.5 points 0.5u
Jonathan Taylor under 2.5 catches 0.25u
Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 catches 0.25u
Germie Bernard to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Colts at Steelers
	Colts	Steelers
Offense	0.11	1
Defense	3.73	2.49

Colts

Offense

Keenan Allen WR Questionable rest 10% chance he sits

Defense

Jaylon Carlies ILB Out ribs first game out
Arden Key DE IR hamstring first game out
Cameron Mitchell CB IR reserve list
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable rest 15% chance he sits

Steelers

Offense

Michael Pittman Jr. WR Out foot first game out

Defense

Jamel Dean CB Out ankle first game out
DeShon Elliott SS IR knee
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable wrist 18% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Jonathan Taylor IND RB55%
DK Metcalf PIT WR37%
Jaylen Warren PIT RB35%
Roman Wilson PIT WR25%
Pat Freiermuth PIT TE23%

Our prop leans

Jonathan Taylor under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -111 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -105 (ESPN BET)
Jaylen Warren under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +123 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +130 (Hard Rock)
Tyler Warren under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +109 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +115 (Hard Rock)
Darnell Washington over 2.5 catches
Michael Pittman is out, so more of the passing game should run through Washington this week.
Worth it at +125 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +130 (BetRivers)
Darnell Washington over 22.5 receiving yards
Michael Pittman is out, so more of the passing game should run through Washington this week.
Worth it at -108 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -105 (ESPN BET)

Players

Quarterbacks 3

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Aaron Rodgers PIT	224.5 pass yds · 0.5 rush yds	QB18	215.4	1.31	0.56	1	2025 Wk 14 · 9 games ago	16
Daniel Jones IND	207.5 pass yds · 8.5 rush yds	QB28	213.6	1.38	0.77	3	Wk 4 · last game	13
Mason Rudolph PIT	no line yet	QB39	60.0	0.4	0.4	0	None yet	5

Running backs 4

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Jonathan Taylor IND	55%	-165	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	RB3	RB3	+0	6 / 22	—	85.5 rush yds · 19.5 carries · 2.5 catches bet under 2.5
Jaylen Warren PIT	35%	-117	2025 Wk 16 (2 TDs) · 7 games ago	RB11	RB15	+6	0 / 7	—	69.5 rush yds · 16.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean under
Rico Dowdle PIT Questionable	10%	+200	2025 Wk 15 · 6 games ago	RB57	RB44	−12	0 / 6	—	no line yet
Seth McGowan IND	8%	+1000	None yet	RB62	RB50	−9	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Receivers 11

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
DK Metcalf PIT	37%	+175	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR18	WR32	+12	1 / 6	—	4.5 catches · 53.5 rec yds
Josh Downs IND	22%	+235	2025 Wk 15 · 7 games ago	WR27	WR28	−2	0 / 4	—	4.5 catches · 55.5 rec yds
Roman Wilson PIT	25%	+285	Wk 4 · last game	WR42	WR53	+6	2 / 4	—	3.5 catches · 41.5 rec yds
Keenan Allen IND Questionable	8%	+430	Wk 3 · last game	WR56	WR61	−5	1 / 2	—	3.5 catches · 30.5 rec yds
Germie Bernard PIT	18%	+475	None yet	WR65	WR68	−4	0 / 0	—	2.5 catches · 19.5 rec yds
Laquon Treadwell IND	10%	+600	None yet	WR72	—	—	0 / 0	—	1.5 catches · 16.5 rec yds
Michael Pittman PIT Out	—	—	2025 Wk 12 · 9 games ago	WR106	—	—	0 / 5	—	no line yet
Ashton Dulin IND Out	—	—	None yet	WR109	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Ben Skowronek PIT	5%	+1750	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR111	—	—	1 / 2	—	no line yet
Deion Burks IND	3%	+1550	None yet	WR115	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Alec Pierce IND Out	—	—	2025 Wk 18 (2 TDs) · 2 games ago	—	—	—	0 / 6	—	no line yet

Tight ends 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Tyler Warren IND	21%	+230	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	TE7	TE4	−3	2 / 6	—	4.5 catches lean under · 44.5 rec yds
Pat Freiermuth PIT	23%	+310	Wk 4 · last game	TE21	TE25	+1	2 / 6	—	3.5 catches bet under 3.5 · 27.5 rec yds
Darnell Washington PIT	17%	+350	Wk 4 · last game	TE30	TE32	+1	1 / 2	—	2.5 catches lean over · 22.5 rec yds lean over
Mo Alie-Cox IND	1%	+2200	2025 Wk 17 · 2 games ago	TE68	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Robert Tonyan PIT	—	—	None yet	TE89	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Steelers	Colts	DST7	2.4	0.9	0.8	2	23.4	21.0
Colts	Steelers	DST19	2.2	0.6	0.4	0	25.5	23.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Spencer Shrader IND	K8	2.2	11 of 11	100%	58	4	8.8	21.0
Chris Boswell PIT	K11	1.59	27 of 33	82%	59	7	6.9	23.5

Sun Noon CT

Raiders at Patriots

Patriots by 3.5 · over/under 45-45.5

Expected points: Raiders 20.9, Patriots 24.4 · Outdoors

Projected score

Raiders 20, Patriots 24

Patriots win 61% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

No weather worries 62°F at kickoff · overcast · rain 6% at kickoff, up to 11% later · wind S 8 mph, gusts to 14. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Tre Tucker over 3.5 catches 0.25u
Drake Maye under 31.5 rushing yards 0.25u
Romeo Doubs to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Raiders at Patriots
	Raiders	Patriots
Offense	1.3	1.46
Defense	0	4.53

Raiders

Offense

Jalen Nailor WR Out concussion first game out
Ashton Jeanty RB Questionable ankle 40% chance he sits

Patriots

Offense

Mack Hollins WR Out calf first game out
Morgan Moses T Questionable foot 27% chance he sits
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable knee 16% chance he sits

Defense

Carlton Davis CB Out neck first game out
Christian Gonzalez CB Out shoulder
Harold Landry OLB IR reserve list
Charles Woods CB Questionable shoulder 24% chance he sits
Dre'Mont Jones OLB Questionable shoulder 20% chance he sits
Craig Woodson SS Questionable shoulder 20% chance he sits
Christian Elliss ILB Questionable chest 19% chance he sits
Christian Barmore DT Questionable shoulder 14% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Brock Bowers LV TE44%
Romeo Doubs NE WR38%
Mike Washington Jr. LV RB35%
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB34%
TreVeyon Henderson NE RB33%

Our prop leans

Romeo Doubs over 3.5 catches
Mack Hollins is out, so more of the passing game should run through Doubs this week.
Worth it at -127 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -120 (ESPN BET)
Rhamondre Stevenson under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -106 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +100 (FanDuel)

Players

Quarterbacks 3

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Drake Maye NE	225.5 pass yds · 31.5 rush yds bet under 31.5	QB7	238.2	1.53	0.94	3	—	17
Kirk Cousins LV	234.5 pass yds · 0.5 rush yds	QB22	209.1	1.62	0.69	1	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	13
Tommy DeVito NE	no line yet	QB47	30.0	0.0	0.0	0	None yet	1

Running backs 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Ashton Jeanty LV Questionable	4%	+120	Wk 1 (2 TDs) · 3 games ago	RB17	RB6	−6	2 / 8	Tough	no line yet
Rhamondre Stevenson NE Questionable	34%	+138	Wk 4 · last game	RB21	RB23	+0	1 / 9	—	37.5 rush yds · 10.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean under
TreVeyon Henderson NE	33%	+160	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	RB28	RB22	−7	1 / 10	—	46.5 rush yds · 11.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Mike Washington Jr. LV	35%	+130	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	RB36	RB42	+5	1 / 1	Tough	no line yet
Corey Kiner NE	3%	+1500	None yet	RB73	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Reggie Gilliam NE Out	—	—	None yet	RB87	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Lan Larison NE	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Receivers 11

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Romeo Doubs NE	38%	+175	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	WR24	WR34	+6	2 / 5	—	3.5 catches lean over · 49.5 rec yds
Tre Tucker LV	19%	+335	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	WR40	WR49	+4	1 / 2	—	3.5 catches bet over 3.5 · 40.5 rec yds
DeMario Douglas NE	22%	+360	—	WR60	WR63	+5	0 / 2	—	2.5 catches · 25.5 rec yds
Efton Chism III NE	15%	+500	Wk 4 · last game	WR74	WR62	−5	1 / 2	—	1.5 catches · 24.5 rec yds
Cody White LV	17%	+510	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR77	—	—	3 / 4	—	1.5 catches · 21.5 rec yds
Kyle Williams NE	16%	+650	2025 Wk 16 · 8 games ago	WR82	WR82	+0	0 / 3	—	1.5 catches · 12.5 rec yds
Mack Hollins NE Out	—	—	—	WR89	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Jalen Nailor LV Out	—	—	2025 Wk 15 (2 TDs) · 6 games ago	WR100	—	—	0 / 4	—	no line yet
Malik Benson LV	13%	+850	None yet	WR106	WR92	−2	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Jack Bech LV Out	—	—	Wk 1 · 1 game ago	—	—	—	1 / 1	—	no line yet
A.J. Brown NE Out	—	—	2025 Wk 15 · 4 games ago	—	—	—	0 / 7	—	no line yet

Tight ends 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Brock Bowers LV	44%	+150	Wk 4 · last game	TE1	TE1	+0	2 / 9	—	6.5 catches · 73.5 rec yds
Hunter Henry NE	26%	+200	—	TE14	TE15	−1	0 / 4	—	3.5 catches · 37.5 rec yds
Michael Mayer LV	20%	+410	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE27	TE24	−5	1 / 2	—	3.5 catches · 29.5 rec yds
Eli Raridon NE	13%	+600	Wk 1 · 2 games ago	TE42	TE35	—	1 / 1	—	1.5 catches · 10.5 rec yds
Ian Thomas LV	6%	+2500	Wk 4 · last game	TE72	—	—	1 / 1	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Patriots	Raiders	DST11	2.2	0.6	0.6	2	18.0	21.0
Raiders	Patriots	DST14	2.4	0.6	0.6	0	24.5	24.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Matt Gay LV	K16	1.67	20 of 23	87%	59	2	7.1	21.0
Andy Borregales NE	K17	1.41	24 of 32	75%	59	3	6.9	24.5

Sun Noon CT

Vikings at Saints

Vikings by 2-2.5 · over/under 41.5

Expected points: Vikings 21.9, Saints 19.6 · Dome

Projected score

Vikings 21, Saints 19

Vikings win 57% of the time

Weather

Indoors Weather isn't a factor.

Our bets in this game

Saints +2.5 0.25u
Juwan Johnson under 4.5 catches 0.25u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Vikings at Saints
	Vikings	Saints
Offense	3.64	3.77
Defense	0	2.23

Vikings

Offense

Christian Darrisaw T Out concussion first game out
Donovan Jackson G IR reserve list first game out
Josh Oliver TE IR reserve list
Brian O'Neill T Questionable knee 27% chance he sits
Justin Jefferson WR Questionable ankle 30% chance he sits
Jordan Addison WR Questionable hamstring 24% chance he sits

Saints

Offense

Kelvin Banks T IR reserve list
Mason Tipton WR IR reserve list
Travis Etienne RB IR hamstring
Dillon Radunz G IR reserve list

Defense

Kaden Elliss ILB Out calf
Bryan Bresee DT IR reserve list
Julian Blackmon FS Questionable shoulder 23% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Aaron Jones Sr. MIN RB52%
Chris Olave NO WR34%
T.J. Hockenson MIN TE28%
Alvin Kamara NO RB26%
Juwan Johnson NO TE23%

Our prop leans

T.J. Hockenson under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -127 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -120 (BetMGM)
Jordan Addison under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -141 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -135 (ESPN BET)
Chris Olave under 6.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -117 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -114 (DraftKings)

Players

Quarterbacks 3

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Tyler Shough NO	235.5 pass yds · 11.5 rush yds	QB14	256.2	1.36	0.64	4	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	14
Kyler Murray MIN	212.5 pass yds · 17.5 rush yds	QB15	163.2	0.25	0.5	1	2025 Wk 5 · 3 games ago	4
Carson Wentz MIN	no line yet	QB32	193.8	1.0	0.6	0	None yet	5

Running backs 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Aaron Jones MIN	52%	—	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	RB14	RB24	+11	1 / 4	—	71.5 rush yds · 17.5 carries · 2.5 catches
Alvin Kamara NO Questionable	26%	+190	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	RB29	RB28	+0	2 / 3	Tough	32.5 rush yds · 10.5 carries · 3.5 catches
Kendre Miller NO	22%	+425	Wk 1 · 2 games ago	RB41	RB45	+2	1 / 2	Tough	23.5 rush yds · 6.5 carries
Demond Claiborne MIN	16%	+1400	None yet	RB60	RB54	−8	0 / 0	—	no line yet
CJ Donaldson NO	9%	+1200	None yet	RB65	RB66	+1	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet
Travis Etienne NO Out	—	—	—	—	—	—	0 / 11	Tough	no line yet
Jordan Mason MIN Out	—	—	Wk 1 · last game	—	—	—	1 / 7	—	no line yet

Receivers 8

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Chris Olave NO	34%	+200	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	WR8	WR9	+1	1 / 10	—	6.5 catches lean under · 80.5 rec yds
Justin Jefferson MIN Questionable	15%	+175	Wk 1 (2 TDs) · 2 games ago	WR14	WR12	−2	2 / 3	—	6.5 catches · 77.5 rec yds
Jordan Addison MIN Questionable	15%	+250	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR29	WR38	+4	1 / 5	—	3.5 catches lean under · 40.5 rec yds
Devaughn Vele NO	9%	+350	Wk 4 · last game	WR36	WR48	+9	2 / 4	—	3.5 catches · 40.5 rec yds
Jauan Jennings MIN	21%	+750	2025 Wk 17 · 6 games ago	WR68	WR83	+8	0 / 8	—	no line yet
Bryce Lance NO	9%	+900	None yet	WR86	WR76	−4	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Tai Felton MIN	4%	+1400	None yet	WR117	WR101	+8	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Kevin Austin Jr. NO	—	—	2025 Wk 17 · 2 games ago	WR148	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet

Tight ends 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Juwan Johnson NO	23%	+335	Wk 3 (2 TDs) · 1 game ago	TE11	TE10	−1	3 / 5	—	3.5 catches bet under 4.5 · 42.5 rec yds
T.J. Hockenson MIN	28%	+310	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	TE13	TE16	−1	1 / 4	—	4.5 catches lean under · 36.5 rec yds
Noah Fant NO	12%	+800	Wk 3 (2 TDs) · last game	TE33	TE34	−2	3 / 6	—	1.5 catches · 13.5 rec yds
Gavin Bartholomew MIN	7%	+1900	None yet	TE69	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Josh Oliver MIN Out	—	—	2025 Wk 14 (2 TDs) · 6 games ago	—	—	—	0 / 4	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Vikings	Saints	DST2	3.2	0.6	0.6	0	17.9	20.5
Saints	Vikings	DST16	2.4	0.6	0.6	1	22.9	22.0

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Will Reichard MIN	K3	2.18	37 of 39	95%	59	11	8.2	22.0
Daniel Carlson NO	K21	1.18	20 of 25	80%	60	4	5.0	20.5

Sun Noon CT

Giants at Commanders

Commanders by 3.5 · over/under 41.5

Expected points: Giants 19, Commanders 22.5 · Outdoors

Projected score

Giants 17, Commanders 20

Commanders win 60% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

Windy: ESE 13 mph, gusts to 31Rain likely: up to 77% 67°F at kickoff · light rain · rain 77% at kickoff · wind ESE 13 mph, gusts to 31. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Under 42.5 points 0.25u
Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 55.5 rushing yards 0.25u
Malachi Fields under 2.5 catches 0.25u
Najee Harris to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Giants at Commanders
	Giants	Commanders
Offense	4	2.6
Defense	5.5	2.89

Giants

Offense

Jaxson Dart QB IR reserve list

Defense

Jason Pinnock FS Out concussion first game out
Paulson Adebo CB IR reserve list
Chauncey Golston DE IR neck first game out
Brian Burns OLB IR reserve list
Roy Robertson-Harris DT IR reserve list

Commanders

Offense

Stefon Diggs WR Out hamstring first game out
Laremy Tunsil T IR reserve list
Terry McLaurin WR Questionable hamstring 35% chance he sits

Defense

Charles Omenihu DE Out groin first game out
Nick Cross SS Out illness
Trey Amos CB IR ankle 50% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS RB36%
Cam Skattebo NYG RB36%
Jayden Daniels WAS QB27%
Isaiah Likely NYG TE23%
Antonio Williams WAS WR21%

Our prop leans

Cam Skattebo under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -170 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -160 (Hard Rock)
Malik Nabers under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +109 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +115 (Hard Rock)

Players

Quarterbacks 5

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Jayden Daniels WAS	191.5 pass yds · 30.5 rush yds	QB10	155.6	1.14	0.43	2	2025 Wk 9 · 3 games ago	7
Jameis Winston NYG	200.5 pass yds · 2.5 rush yds	QB23	174.3	0.83	0.83	1	2025 Wk 12 · 4 games ago	6
Athan Kaliakmanis WAS	no line yet	QB35	186.0	1.0	1.0	0	None yet	1
Marcus Mariota WAS Out	no line yet	QB38	152.0	1.0	0.55	0	2025 Wk 3 · 12 games ago	11
Jaxson Dart NYG Out	no line yet	—	185.5	1.31	0.38	8	2025 Wk 17 (2 TDs) · 3 games ago	13

Running backs 8

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Cam Skattebo NYG	36%	+140	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	RB18	RB16	−3	1 / 8	—	56.5 rush yds · 15.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean under
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS	36%	+165	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	RB23	RB25	+4	1 / 7	—	53.5 rush yds bet under 55.5 · 13.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Rachaad White WAS	14%	+240	Wk 3 · last game	RB45	RB30	−16	1 / 4	—	23.5 rush yds · 1.5 catches
Najee Harris NYG	19%	+400	None yet	RB47	RB48	−2	0 / 0	—	29.5 rush yds
Austin Ekeler WAS	12%	+550	None yet	RB53	RB62	+3	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Kaytron Allen WAS	—	—	None yet	RB77	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Devin Singletary NYG	7%	+1000	Wk 1 · 1 game ago	RB81	RB57	—	1 / 6	—	no line yet
Patrick Ricard NYG	2%	+3000	None yet	RB87	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Receivers 9

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Malik Nabers NYG	3%	+225	Wk 4 · last game	WR16	WR14	−3	1 / 3	—	4.5 catches lean under · 54.5 rec yds
Stefon Diggs WAS Out	—	—	Wk 2 (2 TDs) · 2 games ago	WR27	—	—	3 / 7	—	no line yet
Antonio Williams WAS	21%	+310	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	WR43	WR51	−1	1 / 1	—	3.5 catches · 33.5 rec yds
Terry McLaurin WAS Questionable	6%	+210	Wk 3 · last game	WR53	WR26	+0	1 / 4	—	3.5 catches · 50.5 rec yds
Malachi Fields NYG	18%	+480	Wk 4 · last game	WR58	WR65	+2	1 / 1	—	2.5 catches bet under 2.5 · 25.5 rec yds
Darnell Mooney NYG	11%	+750	2025 Wk 12 · 10 games ago	WR76	WR80	+6	0 / 1	—	1.5 catches · 17.5 rec yds
Treylon Burks WAS	15%	+350	Wk 4 · last game	WR87	WR96	+11	2 / 3	—	no line yet
Dyami Brown WAS	14%	+510	2025 Wk 2 · 13 games ago	WR89	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Odell Beckham Jr. NYG	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Tight ends 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Isaiah Likely NYG	23%	+270	Wk 1 (2 TDs) · 3 games ago	TE8	TE11	+3	2 / 3	—	4.5 catches · 41.5 rec yds
Chig Okonkwo WAS	17%	+370	2025 Wk 17 · 3 games ago	TE29	TE27	−3	0 / 2	Tough	3.5 catches · 24.5 rec yds
Theo Johnson NYG	9%	+900	Wk 4 · last game	TE36	TE38	+0	1 / 6	—	no line yet
John Bates WAS	6%	+1400	2025 Wk 18 · 2 games ago	TE63	TE49	—	0 / 1	Tough	no line yet
Ben Sinnott WAS	4%	+1750	2025 Wk 10 · 7 games ago	TE67	TE47	—	0 / 1	Tough	no line yet
Colson Yankoff WAS	2%	+4000	None yet	TE76	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Commanders	Giants	DST9	2.3	0.6	0.2	1	28.4	20.0
Giants	Commanders	DST18	1.9	0.7	0.5	1	24.5	23.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Drew Stevens WAS	K22	1.75	7 of 9	78%	57	2	7.0	23.5
Dominic Zvada NYG	K24	2.25	9 of 9	100%	52	3	8.0	20.0

Sunday afternoon Sun, Oct 11

Sun 3:05 PM CT

Broncos at Chargers

Broncos by 3.5 · over/under 41.5-42

Expected points: Broncos 22.6, Chargers 19.1 · Dome

Projected score

Broncos 23, Chargers 19

Broncos win 61% of the time

Weather

Indoors Weather isn't a factor.

Our bets in this game

Chargers +3.5 0.5u
Chargers to win 0.25u
Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 catches 0.25u
Troy Franklin under 1.5 catches 0.25u
Kimani Vidal to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Broncos at Chargers
	Broncos	Chargers
Offense	1	7.02
Defense	1.3	3.27

Broncos

Offense

Pat Bryant WR IR ankle first game out

Defense

Riley Moss CB Out ribs first game out

Chargers

Offense

Joe Alt T Out neck first game out
Quentin Johnston WR Out chest first game out
Kayode Awosika G Out fibula
Trevor Penning G Out concussion first game out
Trey Pipkins T IR reserve list
Branson Taylor G IR neck
Charlie Kolar TE Questionable forearm 31% chance he sits

Defense

Donte Jackson CB Out hamstring first game out
Derwin James SS Out hamstring
Denzel Perryman ILB IR reserve list

Most likely to score a TD

J.K. Dobbins DEN RB39%
Keaton Mitchell LAC RB31%
Courtland Sutton DEN WR31%
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR29%
Omarion Hampton LAC RB24%

Our prop leans

Troy Franklin under 1.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -106 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +100 (BetMGM)
RJ Harvey under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +123 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +130 (FanDuel)
Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -102 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +104 (FanDuel)
Courtland Sutton under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -143 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -135 (ESPN BET)

Players

Quarterbacks 2

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Bo Nix DEN	219.5 pass yds · 13.5 rush yds	QB11	234.5	1.5	0.69	5	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	16
Justin Herbert LAC	200.5 pass yds · 24.5 rush yds	QB24	217.1	1.38	0.94	2	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	16

Running backs 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Omarion Hampton LAC	24%	+195	Wk 4 · last game	RB25	RB19	−5	3 / 8	—	39.5 rush yds · 11.5 carries · 1.5 catches
J.K. Dobbins DEN	39%	+150	2025 Wk 5 · 9 games ago	RB27	RB33	+3	0 / 4	—	48.5 rush yds · 13.5 carries
RJ Harvey DEN	18%	+215	2025 Wk 17 · 6 games ago	RB30	RB21	−6	0 / 11	—	26.5 rush yds · 3.5 catches lean under
Keaton Mitchell LAC	31%	+320	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	RB33	RB36	−3	1 / 2	—	32.5 rush yds · 7.5 carries
Kimani Vidal LAC	19%	+750	Wk 4 · last game	RB51	RB51	−1	1 / 5	—	no line yet
Tyler Badie DEN	11%	+800	None yet	RB64	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Jonah Coleman DEN Out	—	—	Wk 2 · last game	—	—	—	1 / 1	—	no line yet

Receivers 11

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Jaylen Waddle DEN	29%	+200	Wk 4 · last game	WR20	WR18	−6	1 / 5	—	4.5 catches bet under 4.5 · 55.5 rec yds
Tre Harris LAC	21%	—	2025 Wk 8 · 14 games ago	WR37	WR41	+3	0 / 1	—	46.5 rec yds
Courtland Sutton DEN	31%	+225	—	WR41	WR37	−5	0 / 5	—	3.5 catches lean under · 38.5 rec yds
Ladd McConkey LAC Questionable	3%	+225	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	WR73	WR29	—	1 / 7	—	3.5 catches · 42.5 rec yds
Troy Franklin DEN	16%	+700	2025 Wk 15 · 6 games ago	WR78	WR77	+5	0 / 5	—	1.5 catches bet under 1.5 · 19.5 rec yds
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN	14%	+750	—	WR85	WR87	+7	0 / 3	—	1.5 catches · 13.5 rec yds
Marquez Valdes-Scantling LAC	7%	+650	2025 Wk 15 · 6 games ago	WR90	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Quentin Johnston LAC Out	—	—	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	WR126	—	—	0 / 6	—	no line yet
Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN	—	—	—	WR127	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Brenen Thompson LAC Out	—	—	None yet	WR138	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Pat Bryant DEN Out	—	—	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR143	—	—	1 / 2	—	no line yet

Tight ends 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Oronde Gadsden II LAC	23%	+340	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	TE20	TE18	−3	1 / 4	—	3.5 catches · 33.5 rec yds
Evan Engram DEN	13%	+540	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	TE31	TE28	−4	1 / 1	Tough	2.5 catches · 17.5 rec yds
Charlie Kolar LAC Questionable	7%	+700	2025 Wk 9 · 7 games ago	TE49	TE33	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet
Nate Adkins DEN	7%	+1500	Wk 3 · last game	TE52	—	—	2 / 3	Tough	no line yet
Adam Trautman DEN	6%	+1150	2025 Wk 2 · 12 games ago	TE61	—	—	0 / 1	Tough	no line yet
David Njoku LAC Out	—	—	2025 Wk 14 · 2 games ago	—	—	—	0 / 4	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Broncos	Chargers	DST4	3.2	0.9	0.2	2	20.6	19.5
Chargers	Broncos	DST23	2.7	1.2	0.4	0	21.4	23.0

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Wil Lutz DEN	K19	1.71	29 of 36	81%	54	4	7.1	23.0
Cameron Dicker LAC	K26	2.12	36 of 41	88%	59	4	8.2	19.5

Sun 3:25 PM CT

Lions at Cardinals

Lions by 5.5 · over/under 54.5

Expected points: Lions 30, Cardinals 24.5 · Retractable roof

Projected score

Lions 30, Cardinals 24

Lions win 65% of the time

Weather

Retractable roof The roof closes for bad weather, so weather isn't a factor.

Our bets in this game

Marvin Harrison Jr. under 2.5 catches 0.25u
Kendrick Bourne under 2.5 catches 0.25u
Jameson Williams to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Lions at Cardinals
	Lions	Cardinals
Offense	0.75	4.51
Defense	5.51	2.55

Lions

Offense

Ben Bartch G Out foot

Defense

Rock Ya-Sin CB Out hamstring first game out
Brian Branch SS IR achilles
Thomas Harper FS IR reserve list
Kerby Joseph FS IR reserve list
Avonte Maddox FS IR reserve list
Tyleik Williams DT Questionable foot 26% chance he sits

Cardinals

Offense

Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Out first game out
Isaiah Adams G Out ankle first game out
Paris Johnson T IR reserve list first game out
Trey Benson RB IR reserve list
James Conner RB IR reserve list

Defense

Andrew Wingard FS Out knee first game out
Will Johnson CB IR reserve list
Walter Nolen DT Questionable calf 26% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB76%
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR54%
Michael Wilson ARI WR45%
Trey McBride ARI TE44%
Jeremiyah Love ARI RB34%

Our prop leans

Jahmyr Gibbs under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -104 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +102 (FanDuel)
Sam LaPorta under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +113 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +120 (ESPN BET)
Amon-Ra St. Brown under 7.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -135 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -128 (DraftKings)
Jeremiyah Love under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -137 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -130 (FanDuel)

Players

Quarterbacks 2

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Jared Goff DET	280.5 pass yds · 0.5 rush yds	QB2	285.2	2.0	0.35	0	None yet	17
Jacoby Brissett ARI	268.5 pass yds · 8.5 rush yds	QB6	246.1	1.71	0.71	2	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	17

Running backs 4

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Jahmyr Gibbs DET	76%	-350	Wk 4 · last game	RB1	RB1	+0	7 / 21	Good	89.5 rush yds · 19.5 carries · 4.5 catches lean under
Jeremiyah Love ARI	34%	-110	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	RB19	RB12	−5	2 / 2	—	44.5 rush yds · 11.5 carries · 2.5 catches lean under
Tyler Allgeier ARI	24%	+240	Wk 4 · last game	RB37	RB34	−1	1 / 7	—	27.5 rush yds · 7.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Sione Vaki DET	12%	+750	None yet	RB59	—	—	0 / 0	Good	8.5 rush yds

Receivers 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET	54%	-135	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR4	WR4	−1	5 / 10	Good	7.5 catches lean under · 80.5 rec yds
Michael Wilson ARI	45%	+160	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR9	WR25	+15	1 / 7	—	6.5 catches · 79.5 rec yds
Jameson Williams DET	29%	+180	2025 Wk 15 · 7 games ago	WR17	WR21	+1	0 / 6	Good	3.5 catches · 52.5 rec yds
Isaac TeSlaa DET	21%	+420	2025 Wk 17 · 5 games ago	WR54	WR58	+1	0 / 5	Good	1.5 catches · 25.5 rec yds
Kendrick Bourne ARI	24%	+380	None yet	WR55	WR70	+10	0 / 0	—	3.5 catches bet under 2.5 · 31.5 rec yds
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI Out	—	—	Wk 4 · last game	WR88	—	—	1 / 5	—	no line yet
Jackson Meeks DET	—	—	None yet	WR164	—	—	0 / 0	Good	no line yet

Tight ends 4

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Trey McBride ARI	44%	+110	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	TE2	TE2	+0	2 / 12	Good	7.5 catches · 84.5 rec yds
Sam LaPorta DET	31%	+175	Wk 4 · last game	TE4	TE6	+3	2 / 5	—	4.5 catches lean under · 50.5 rec yds
Elijah Higgins ARI	11%	+1100	Wk 4 · last game	TE48	—	—	1 / 1	Good	1.5 catches · 9.5 rec yds
Brock Wright DET	9%	+700	2025 Wk 5 · 8 games ago	TE50	—	—	0 / 2	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Lions	Cardinals	DST20	2.9	0.7	0.3	0	26.6	25.0
Cardinals	Lions	DST30	1.8	0.6	0.6	0	31.2	29.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Jake Bates DET	K4	1.65	28 of 33	85%	59	4	7.9	29.5
Chad Ryland ARI	K14	1.47	25 of 32	78%	60	5	6.6	25.0

Sun 3:25 PM CT

49ers at Seahawks

Seahawks by 3 · over/under 46.5

Expected points: 49ers 21.8, Seahawks 24.8 · Outdoors

Projected score

49ers 21, Seahawks 24

Seahawks win 58% of the time

Weather at kickoff and through the game

No weather worries 57°F at kickoff · clear · little or no rain expected · wind N 10 mph, gusts to 21. Forecast updated Sun 7:30 AM CT.

Our bets in this game

Seahawks -3 0.5u
Christian McCaffrey under 4.5 catches 0.25u
Deebo Samuel under 3.5 catches 0.25u
Cooper Kupp to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, 49ers at Seahawks
	49ers	Seahawks
Offense	2.04	1.52
Defense	4.59	0.02

49ers

Offense

Ricky Pearsall WR IR reserve list
Demarcus Robinson WR IR reserve list

Defense

Nick Bosa DE Out knee
Marques Sigle SS Out ankle first game out
Sam Okuayinonu DE IR reserve list
Mykel Williams DE IR knee 44% chance he sits
Upton Stout CB Questionable shoulder 42% chance he sits

Seahawks

Offense

Anthony Bradford G IR reserve list
Zach Charbonnet RB IR knee

Most likely to score a TD

Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR55%
Christian McCaffrey SF RB49%
Emanuel Wilson SEA RB43%
Mike Evans SF WR30%
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF WR28%

Our prop leans

Rashid Shaheed under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -170 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -160 (Hard Rock)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 6.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +110 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +116 (DraftKings)
Deebo Samuel under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -108 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -102 (FanDuel)
Cooper Kupp under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -147 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -139 (DraftKings)
Christian McCaffrey under 4.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -103 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +101 (DraftKings)
AJ Barner under 2.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -124 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -120 (ESPN BET)

Players

Quarterbacks 4

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Brock Purdy SF	228.5 pass yds · 24.5 rush yds	QB9	230.0	2.23	0.77	4	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	13
Sam Darnold SEA	232.5 pass yds · 5.5 rush yds	QB16	220.4	1.5	0.81	0	None yet	16
Drew Lock SEA	no line yet	QB36	105.5	1.0	0.0	0	None yet	4
Mac Jones SF	no line yet	QB40	100.3	0.78	0.33	0	None yet	9

Running backs 6

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Christian McCaffrey SF	49%	-135	Wk 4 · last game	RB7	RB8	+1	4 / 19	—	49.5 rush yds · 14.5 carries · 4.5 catches bet under 4.5
Emanuel Wilson SEA	43%	-117	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	RB15	RB31	+17	2 / 5	—	64.5 rush yds · 16.5 carries · 1.5 catches
George Holani SEA Questionable	18%	+300	2025 Wk 10 · 7 games ago	RB42	RB56	+13	0 / 1	—	18.5 rush yds · 1.5 catches
Kaelon Black SF	9%	+850	None yet	RB48	RB37	−7	0 / 0	—	14.5 rush yds
Jadarian Price SEA Out	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Brady Russell SEA	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Receivers 9

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA	55%	-115	Wk 3 (2 TDs) · 1 game ago	WR1	WR1	+0	6 / 14	—	6.5 catches lean under · 95.5 rec yds
Mike Evans SF	30%	+210	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR21	WR23	+1	2 / 5	—	3.5 catches · 50.5 rec yds
Deebo Samuel Sr. SF	28%	—	Wk 4 · last game	WR25	WR31	+1	3 / 7	—	3.5 catches bet under 3.5 · 34.5 rec yds
Rashid Shaheed SEA	24%	+340	Wk 4 · last game	WR50	WR47	−2	1 / 1	—	2.5 catches lean under · 20.5 rec yds
Cooper Kupp SEA	22%	+380	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR63	WR64	+3	1 / 3	—	2.5 catches lean under · 23.5 rec yds
Tory Horton SEA	11%	+625	Wk 4 · last game	WR91	WR73	−10	1 / 6	—	1.5 catches · 9.5 rec yds
Jordan Watkins SF	6%	+1500	None yet	WR98	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Brandin Cooks SF	8%	+900	None yet	WR108	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Demarcus Robinson SF Out	—	—	Wk 1 · 1 game ago	—	—	—	1 / 3	—	no line yet

Tight ends 3

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
George Kittle SF	28%	+190	Wk 4 · last game	TE3	TE5	+1	4 / 11	—	4.5 catches · 54.5 rec yds
AJ Barner SEA	19%	+340	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	TE23	TE26	+1	1 / 5	—	2.5 catches lean under · 21.5 rec yds
Elijah Arroyo SEA	5%	+1050	2025 Wk 9 · 6 games ago	TE51	TE42	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Seahawks	49ers	DST13	2.6	1.1	0.8	2	16.2	22.0
49ers	Seahawks	DST25	1.3	0.4	0.4	1	21.6	24.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Jason Myers SEA	K7	2.41	41 of 44	93%	57	6	10.1	24.5
Eddy Pineiro SF	K13	1.33	20 of 23	87%	57	5	6.9	22.0

Sunday night Sun, Oct 11

Sun 7:20 PM CT · Sunday Night Football

Ravens at Falcons

Falcons by 3.5 · over/under 43.5

Expected points: Ravens 20, Falcons 23.5 · Retractable roof

Projected score

Ravens 20, Falcons 23

Falcons win 60% of the time

Weather

Retractable roof The roof closes for bad weather, so weather isn't a factor.

Our bets in this game

Under 43.5 points 0.25u
Zay Flowers under 5.5 catches 0.25u
Derrick Henry under 85.5 rushing yards 0.25u
Drake London to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Ravens at Falcons
	Ravens	Falcons
Offense	5.87	0.19
Defense	1.46	3.92

Ravens

Offense

Lamar Jackson QB Out ankle first game out
Jovaughn Gwyn C IR reserve list
Durham Smythe TE IR achilles first game out

Defense

Trey Hendrickson OLB Out finger
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable hamstring 36% chance he sits

Falcons

Offense

Jake Matthews T Questionable groin 15% chance he sits

Defense

AJ Terrell CB IR reserve list
James Pearce OLB IR reserve list
Jalon Walker OLB IR reserve list
Samson Ebukam DE Questionable hamstring 31% chance he sits
Divine Deablo ILB Questionable hamstring 28% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Bijan Robinson ATL RB63%
Derrick Henry BAL RB61%
Drake London ATL WR39%
Brian Robinson Jr. ATL RB24%
Mark Andrews BAL TE24%

Our prop leans

Mark Andrews under 3.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at +113 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT +120 (BetMGM)
Zay Flowers under 5.5 catches
The way he has been used lately points to fewer catches than the sportsbook's number.
Worth it at -127 or better · best price Sun 7:00 AM CT -120 (BetMGM)

Players

Quarterbacks 5

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Michael Penix Jr. ATL	219.5 pass yds · 0.5 rush yds	QB25	220.4	1.14	0.14	0	2025 Wk 1 · 10 games ago	7
Tyler Huntley BAL	173.5 pass yds · 29.5 rush yds	QB27	81.5	0.33	0.0	0	None yet	6
Lamar Jackson BAL Out	no line yet	QB31	203.6	1.31	0.54	2	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	13
Cooper Rush ATL	no line yet	QB41	120.0	0.25	2.0	0	None yet	4
Jack Strand ATL	no line yet	—	59.0	0.0	1.0	0	None yet	1

Running backs 4

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Bijan Robinson ATL	63%	-220	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	RB2	RB2	+0	5 / 14	—	86.5 rush yds · 18.5 carries · 3.5 catches
Derrick Henry BAL	61%	-140	Wk 4 · last game	RB5	RB4	−1	7 / 20	—	79.5 rush yds bet under 85.5 · 19.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Brian Robinson ATL	24%	+250	Wk 4 (3 TDs) · last game	RB32	RB35	+3	4 / 6	—	35.5 rush yds · 8.5 carries
Justice Hill BAL	18%	+700	2025 Wk 10 · 4 games ago	RB54	RB61	+3	0 / 3	—	11.5 rush yds · 1.5 catches

Receivers 11

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Drake London ATL	39%	+125	2025 Wk 18 · 4 games ago	WR6	WR8	+1	0 / 7	Tough	6.5 catches · 80.5 rec yds
Zay Flowers BAL Questionable	5%	+215	Wk 4 · last game	WR11	WR6	−5	2 / 7	—	5.5 catches bet under 5.5 · 68.5 rec yds
Rashod Bateman BAL	5%	+500	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	WR59	WR55	−4	1 / 3	—	1.5 catches · 17.5 rec yds
Jahan Dotson ATL	15%	+500	Wk 4 · last game	WR71	WR79	+9	1 / 2	Tough	1.5 catches · 19.5 rec yds
Zachariah Branch ATL	8%	+1100	None yet	WR93	WR85	−1	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL	10%	+900	—	WR94	WR95	+6	0 / 3	Tough	0.5 catches · 7.5 rec yds
Devontez Walker BAL	9%	+1000	2025 Wk 18 · 3 games ago	WR97	—	—	0 / 3	—	0.5 catches · 8.5 rec yds
Chris Moore BAL	3%	+2250	Wk 3 · last game	WR105	—	—	1 / 2	—	no line yet
Elijah Sarratt BAL	2%	+2500	None yet	WR113	WR84	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
LaJohntay Wester BAL	2%	+2250	None yet	WR129	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL Out	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	—	no line yet

Tight ends 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Mark Andrews BAL	24%	+260	Wk 4 · last game	TE12	TE17	+3	1 / 5	—	3.5 catches lean under · 31.5 rec yds
Kyle Pitts ATL	15%	—	2025 Wk 16 · 6 games ago	TE25	TE21	−5	0 / 4	Tough	2.5 catches · 24.5 rec yds
Matthew Hibner BAL	—	—	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE37	TE40	—	1 / 1	—	no line yet
Austin Hooper ATL	9%	+950	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE45	—	—	1 / 3	Tough	0.5 catches · 7.5 rec yds
Charlie Woerner ATL	3%	+2000	None yet	TE78	—	—	0 / 0	Tough	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Falcons	Ravens	DST15	3.2	0.8	0.4	1	23.9	20.0
Ravens	Falcons	DST17	1.9	0.7	0.6	1	21.2	23.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Tyler Loop BAL	K15	1.71	29 of 35	83%	64	3	7.7	20.0
Nick Folk ATL	K18	1.69	27 of 31	87%	56	4	6.6	23.5

Monday night Mon, Oct 12

Mon 7:15 PM CT · Monday Night Football

Bills at Rams

Rams by 3.5 · over/under 54.5

Expected points: Bills 25.5, Rams 29 · Dome

Projected score

Bills 25, Rams 29

Rams win 60% of the time

Weather

Indoors Weather isn't a factor.

Our bets in this game

Rams -3 0.5u
Under 54.5 points 0.75u
Dalton Kincaid under 52.5 receiving yards 0.25u
Khalil Shakir to score a TD 0.1u

Injury report: starters only

Injury scores, Bills at Rams
	Bills	Rams
Offense	1.28	0.85
Defense	0.77	2.63

Bills

Offense

Tyrell Shavers WR IR reserve list
D.J. Moore WR Questionable shoulder 28% chance he sits

Defense

Dee Alford CB Questionable ankle 33% chance he sits

Rams

Offense

Terrance Ferguson TE IR ankle

Defense

Myles Garrett OLB IR reserve list
Quentin Lake FS Questionable hip 28% chance he sits

Most likely to score a TD

Kyren Williams LA RB60%
Puka Nacua LA WR51%
Josh Allen BUF QB49%
Davante Adams LA WR47%
Khalil Shakir BUF WR39%

Our prop leans

No prop leans in this game yet.

Players

Quarterbacks 3

Quarterback	Over/under lines	Rank this week	Pass yds a game	TD passes a game	INTs a game	Rushing TDs	Last rushing TD	Games
Josh Allen BUF	244.5 pass yds · 36.5 rush yds	QB1	241.6	1.5	0.69	20	Wk 4 · last game	16
Matthew Stafford LA	278.5 pass yds · 0.5 rush yds	QB4	292.1	2.41	0.76	0	None yet	17
Stetson Bennett LA	no line yet	—	13.0	0.0	0.0	0	None yet	1

Running backs 5

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Kyren Williams LA	60%	-170	Wk 4 (2 TDs) · last game	RB4	RB10	+6	4 / 16	Good	69.5 rush yds · 14.5 carries · 2.5 catches
James Cook BUF	10%	—	Wk 4 · last game	RB10	RB5	−3	3 / 12	—	75.5 rush yds · 16.5 carries · 1.5 catches
Blake Corum LA	24%	+295	2025 Wk 16 · 9 games ago	RB34	RB20	−16	0 / 5	Good	36.5 rush yds
Ty Johnson BUF	20%	+650	2025 Wk 18 (2 TDs) · 2 games ago	RB52	RB71	+11	0 / 5	—	1.5 catches
Ronnie Rivers LA Out	—	—	None yet	—	—	—	0 / 0	Good	no line yet

Receivers 9

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Puka Nacua LA	51%	-120	Wk 4 · last game	WR2	WR3	+0	1 / 13	—	7.5 catches · 94.5 rec yds
Davante Adams LA	47%	+100	Wk 2 (2 TDs) · 2 games ago	WR7	WR19	+6	2 / 14	—	4.5 catches · 62.5 rec yds
Khalil Shakir BUF	39%	+250	2025 Wk 14 · 9 games ago	WR34	WR39	+3	0 / 2	—	4.5 catches · 46.5 rec yds
Keon Coleman BUF	31%	+260	Wk 4 · last game	WR35	WR46	+3	1 / 5	—	2.5 catches · 38.5 rec yds
DJ Moore BUF Questionable	5%	+185	Wk 1 · 3 games ago	WR70	WR20	−41	1 / 9	—	no line yet
Konata Mumpfield LA	8%	+850	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	WR96	WR66	−21	1 / 2	—	0.5 catches · 7.5 rec yds
Jordan Whittington LA	8%	+1000	None yet	WR101	—	—	0 / 0	—	0.5 catches · 5.5 rec yds
Tutu Atwell LA	2%	+1750	2025 Wk 4 · 6 games ago	WR109	WR88	−2	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Josh Palmer BUF Out	—	—	Wk 2 · 1 game ago	WR115	—	—	2 / 2	—	no line yet

Tight ends 7

Player	TD chance	TD odds	Last TD	Rank this week	Season rank	This week vs season	TDs 2026 / last 17	Matchup	Over/under lines
Dalton Kincaid BUF	34%	+185	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	TE6	TE3	−3	1 / 7	—	4.5 catches · 56.5 rec yds bet under 52.5
Tyler Higbee LA	19%	+250	Wk 3 · 1 game ago	TE22	TE29	+14	1 / 4	—	2.5 catches · 23.5 rec yds
Colby Parkinson LA	19%	+280	—	TE34	TE36	—	0 / 9	—	1.5 catches · 16.5 rec yds
Dawson Knox BUF	18%	+600	Wk 2 · 2 games ago	TE35	TE43	—	1 / 4	—	1.5 catches · 10.5 rec yds
Davis Allen LA	7%	+850	2025 Wk 10 · 10 games ago	TE44	—	—	0 / 1	—	no line yet
Jackson Hawes BUF	8%	+1200	2025 Wk 14 · 4 games ago	TE62	—	—	0 / 3	—	no line yet
Terrance Ferguson LA Out	—	—	Wk 2 · 1 game ago	—	—	—	1 / 4	—	no line yet

Defenses 2

Defense	Facing	Rank this week	Sacks a game	INTs a game	Fumbles recovered a game	Defensive TDs	Points allowed a game	Opponent expected points
Rams	Bills	DST24	1.9	1.1	0.3	1	23.0	26.0
Bills	Rams	DST27	1.9	0.9	0.4	1	23.1	28.5

Kickers 2

Kicker	Rank this week	Field goals a game	Made	FG%	Long	From 50+	Points a game	Team expected points
Harrison Mevis LA	K9	1.44	23 of 26	88%	52	2	7.9	28.5
Tyler Bass BUF	K10	1.5	6 of 6	100%	46	0	7.8	26.0