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Five minutes. How to follow a Sunday Squeeze pick, from finding the bet to the payout, and how to read our record.
What we do, and what we don't
We tell you what to bet. That is all. We never take a bet, hold your money, or place anything for you. You place each bet yourself, in an app run by a licensed sportsbook, in a state where that is legal. You have to be 21 or older.
No pick is a sure thing. Even good bettors lose plenty of plays. That is why every pick comes with a size, and why you should only bet money you can afford to lose.
Step 1
How much to bet: units
Set aside a betting budget. Then a unit is 1% of it. Every pick says how many units to bet, so the same card works for a small budget or a big one. Your unit stays the same size from week to week, and you never bet more than the size shown. If you skip a play, don't make the others bigger.
| If your betting budget is | One unit | 0.25 units | 0.5 units | 0.75 units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | $5 | $1.25 | $2.50 | $3.75 |
| $1,000 | $10 | $2.50 | $5 | $7.50 |
| $2,500 | $25 | $6.25 | $12.50 | $18.75 |
Step 2
Reading a pick, line by line
This is an example, not a current pick, laid out the way a play appears on every card. On the left is the card. On the right is what each line means.
Placing the bet, step by step
- Open your sportsbook app and find the game.
- Use the "Look for" line. For a player pick, search the player's name or open the game's Player Props tab. Catches may be called "Receptions" and carries "Rush Attempts." For a touchdown pick, use the Anytime scorer list, not First or Last scorer and not 2+ touchdowns.
- Tap the exact button named in the "Look for" line. On a total, the Under often reads "U 42.5" and the Over "O 42.5".
- Type your bet size in the Wager box (some apps call it Risk or Stake). Don't type it in "To win". The slip may also show a Payout: that is your bet back plus what you win. For the example above, a $7.50 bet shows about $6.94 to win and $14.44 payout. Same bet.
- Check that the number and price are at least as good as the skip rule says, then confirm the bet before kickoff.
One bet at a time. Place each play as its own single bet. Don't add plays together into a parlay: it is a different bet, and one loss sinks all of it. Plays in the same game can win or lose together, and the card says which ones. If your app doesn't offer a bet, skip it.
Step 3
What a price means
A price like -110 or +260 is what the sportsbook pays when you win. Every pick spells it out for every $1 you bet. Here is how to read it:
| Price | A winning bet pays | Example: a $10 bet | Usually |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | Win 91 cents for every $1 you bet | Wins $9.09. You get $19.09 back in all. | The usual price on a total or a spread. |
| -150 | Win 67 cents for every $1 you bet | Wins $6.67. You get $16.67 back in all. | A favorite: more likely to win, so it pays less. |
| +150 | Win $1.50 for every $1 you bet | Wins $15. You get $25 back in all. | An underdog: less likely to win, so it pays more. |
| +260 | Win $2.60 for every $1 you bet | Wins $26. You get $36 back in all. | A longer shot. Touchdown bets often look like this. |
| +450 | Win $4.50 for every $1 you bet | Wins $45. You get $55 back in all. | A long shot that pays a lot when it hits. |
A minus price (like -110) is how much you would risk to win $100. A plus price (like +260) is how much you would win by risking $100. Either way, a win also gives your bet back. A minus number closer to zero pays more (-105 pays more than -120), and a bigger plus number pays more (+300 pays more than +150).
Why -110 is not a coin flip. At -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so you need to win a little more than half your bets (about 52 of every 100) just to break even. Someone who wins exactly half their bets at -110 loses money.
Prices move. Between when we post a pick and when you place it, the price can change. Every pick says the number and price to hold to. If your sportsbook's is worse, skip it. If it is better, even better, but bet before kickoff: once a game starts, its lines are different bets.
Bonus bets. Free "bonus bets" from sign-up offers work differently: a winning bonus bet pays only the profit, not your bet back.
What we bet on
The kinds of bets on a card
- Game totals
- A bet on how many points the two teams score together. The sportsbook sets a number, like 42.5. "Under" wins if the game finishes lower, so 42 or fewer. "Over" wins if it finishes higher, so 43 or more. A half point means the bet can never land exactly on the number.
- Player picks: catches, receiving yards, carries, rushing yards
- A bet on one player's game. It works the same way: "Over 5.5 catches" wins if he catches 6 or more, and "Under 5.5 catches" wins if he catches 5 or fewer. If he doesn't play at all, most sportsbooks refund the bet. If he plays even one snap and then gets hurt, the bet counts, so an Over on a player who is hurt early usually loses. In most apps these bets are under the game's "Player Props" tab, not on the main game screen.
- Touchdown picks
- A bet that a player scores a touchdown at any point in the game. In your app this is the Anytime scorer list. First or Last scorer, and 2+ touchdowns, are different bets that pay more because they are much less likely; don't pick those instead. Touchdown bets pay a lot when they hit and miss most of the time, so we keep them small. Your sportsbook's rules decide anything unusual, like a player who doesn't play.
- Team picks
- A bet on a team. On a spread, one team gets a head start: "Bears -3.5" wins if Chicago wins by 4 or more, and "Jets +3.5" wins if New York wins or loses by 3 or fewer. On a moneyline, the team just has to win. If the game ends in a tie, most US sportsbooks refund a moneyline bet.
- Overtime and postponed games
- Most sportsbooks count overtime for totals, spreads and player stats. If a game is postponed, bets usually stand if it is played within your sportsbook's time limit, and are refunded if it is not. Your sportsbook's house rules have the final say, so read them once.
Our record
Reading our record
The record page lists every play we have posted. Here is what the numbers on it mean.
- Won–lost
- Our wins, then our losses. A third number, when there is one, counts pushes: plays that landed exactly on the number and were refunded.
- Profit, in units
- What we won minus what we lost, counted in units. If your unit is $10, every +1 unit is +$10. It works for any budget. It does not subtract what you pay for a subscription, which is a separate cost.
- Why we keep saying "it's early"
- A few weeks of picks can't tell you much, in either direction. Anyone can have a good month by luck, and a good bettor can have a bad one. Judge us over a full season. The record page has a "More about these numbers" box for anyone who wants the details.
- Why your results will differ
- Our record is graded at the price we posted. If you bet later, or at a different sportsbook, your number may be better or worse, and often a little worse. Bet as soon as a card arrives.
Glossary
Words you'll see
- Sportsbook (or "book")
- A company that takes sports bets, usually through an app. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars are sportsbooks. You need an account at one, and betting has to be legal where you live. You don't need one at every sportsbook, but extra accounts let you shop for a better price, and with only one your price will sometimes be worse than ours.
- Betting budget
- Money you set aside for betting and can afford to lose. Not rent money. Not bill money.
- Unit
- Our bet size. One unit is 1% of your betting budget.
- Price (also called odds)
- What a bet pays. See "What a price means" above.
- Line
- The number a bet is built around, like 42.5 points or 5.5 catches. Lines move as bets come in and news breaks. A number is "harder to win" when it asks more of the bet: a higher number for an Over, a lower number for an Under.
- Single bet and parlay
- A single bet is one play on its own. A parlay ties several plays into one bet, and all of them have to win. We only post single bets.
- Push
- The result lands exactly on the line. Nobody wins, and the bet is refunded.
- Void
- The bet is cancelled and refunded, for example when a player doesn't play.
- Card
- The list of plays we post for a stretch of games: the Thursday main card and the Monday night card. A game-day alert is a single play posted on its own.
- Proof code
- A short code made from the exact text of a card. We post it before kickoff. If anyone changed even one letter later, the code would no longer match, so it shows the card was not edited after the code went out. It does not show that we never posted a different code and deleted it.
- CT
- Central Time. Every time on our cards and pages is Central. Eastern Time is one hour ahead.
Bet responsibly
Set a budget before you bet and stick to it. Never chase losses. If betting stops being fun, stop. Help is free and confidential, 24/7: National Problem Gambling Helpline, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), or chat at ncpgambling.org.